Canada’s Big Pivot

The Public Policy Forum is one of Canada’s premier think tanks, and hosts an annual Growth Summit that tends to be at the pointy end of some pretty big issues.

This year’s summit, in Toronto, was all about what I’d call the Big Pivot — and how we can make our economy more independent and resilient. Great conversations about investment, Indigenous equity, AI-adoption and more.

Here’s a few of the questions I took away:

1. Do we need to win back investor confidence?

The answer seems to be yes. Too many of these conversations assume Canada is amazing in the world’s eyes. Rhetoric is cheap. Credit is costlier. Keep an eye on how money is priced for Canada in the coming months.

2. Can we increase competition while reducing reliance on America?

The U.S. tends to be the primary driver of competition, directly or indirectly. And there are not a lot of easy alternatives. European firms aren’t likely to add a lot of juice to Canadian markets, and Chinese entrants are probably a non-starter. Perhaps our new competition needs to come more from within.

3. Can governments play a more active economic role without wrecking the economy?

We have decades of mixed results but will likely give state corporations one more try, whether it’s to build houses or expand pipelines.

4. What the heck is “national interest”?

A lot of those government investments will be made in the name of an ill-defined national interest. We’re a nation of many regions, and one’s interests are often not another’s

5. Why do Canadians shy away from risk?

I was struck by the number of conversations that eschewed risk. No country clamours to “de-risk” like this one, as if the key role of government is to bear the risks of the private sector and of individuals.

6. How can we develop the Arctic without compromising it?

The summit included several key northern voices that stressed the need to not militarize the North the way we did in the 1950s and ‘60s. They’re eager to defend Canada, on the ground and in the sky, but not at all costs, especially to their culture.

7. How much do we want to exclude China?

Reducing our dependencies on the U.S. will require new markets and new sources of capital — and Europe won’t be the answer, not on its own. Yes, there are plenty of options. It’s a big world! But China is the biggest option, and one we need to develop a clearer relationship with.

8. How do we balance economic ambitions with climate commitments — and the world’s climate expectations?

We’ve become so consumed with All Things Trump that we seem to forgot how the rest of the world is not turning itself upside down. Indeed, climate remains a serious concern from Japan to Germany — the markets we now eagerly want to serve — and we will have to ensure we’re not misaligned.

9. How can we align our duty to consult Indigenous communities with our ambition to build more faster?

There may never be a formula for consultation and the resulting consent — but we may be able to establish norms that will be widely accepted. Watchwords: “speed and certainty.”

10. How can we pool institutional capital for major projects?

We can continue to let market forces determine what gets financed, with a range of government supports and incentives. I don’t think Canada will ever have a sovereign wealth fund. Or will we? Alternatively, can we move toward dedicated public-private investment vehicles that may draw inspiration from the Quebec model?

The next few years will be unlike any few years we’ve seen. So a lot of new thinking will be needed.

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