The threat of significant international trade disruptions is overshadowing what would have been a substantially improving Canadian economy.

The positive effect of lower interest rates had been showing up earlier than we expected a quarter ago without the tariff threats. Canadian gross domestic product growth in Q4 was significantly stronger than we assumed—led by a surge in household spending (on both consumer products and homes), and a jump in business investment. Labour markets showed clear signs of improvement with the unemployment rate dropping to 6.6% over January and February from a recent peak of 6.9% in November.

A weaker Canadian dollar (a consequence of earlier and larger interest rate cuts last year) has increased costs for importers, but also made Canadian exports and assets cheaper for foreign buyers. Net foreign direct investment in the Canadian manufacturing sector (foreign investment in Canada less Canadian investment abroad) posted its best year since 2007 in 2024, led by a surge in foreign investments in the second half of the year.

But, we expect that positive momentum has been derailed by intensifying U.S. tariff risks. The speed and volume of trade threats and the on-again off-again implementation of actual tariffs has been unprecedented. The 25% blanket tariffs implemented on Canada and Mexico earlier this month, at least temporarily, pushed the effective average U.S. tariff rate to its highest level since the 1930s—before being partially unwound within days for products compliant with CUSMA—the NAFTA replacement free trade deal negotiated by the first Trump administration.

CUSMA trade deal backstop will only go so far

Our base case outlook continues to assume that severely disruptive blanket tariff increases imposed briefly this month will be avoided, because tariffs would also be damaging for the U.S. economy (see more here and here). But, actual and threatened tariff increases are compounding, and weighing on consumer and business confidence.

A quick reversal of early March tariff increases on U.S. imports for Canadian and Mexican products compliant with CUSMA will help. By our count, over 90% of Canadian exports to the U.S. last year should be eligible for no tariffs under CUSMA rules. It has been widely reported that only 38% of Canadian exports last year actually used CUSMA, but that is likely because other general non-CUSMA tariff rates were already zero. Meeting criteria for free trade under CUSMA in many cases will require additional steps like more paperwork to satisfy “rules of origin” requirements, but that should be doable in most cases.

Still, broader international trade risks are not going away. By our count, about 6% of Canadian exports to the U.S. are not protected under CUSMA including a large chunk of the aerospace sector. Tariff measures targeting specific industries like steel and aluminum are more likely to stick for longer. And, the unpredictability of U.S. trade policy is weighing on business confidence (and likely investment plans) even if additional tariffs are avoided.

So-called “reciprocal” tariffs are also being threatened for April 2. Details on what those might look like are still vague, but reports suggest they could include targeting trade barriers (not real but perceived) posed by consumption taxes like Canada’s GST/HST as well as other non-tariff barriers.

Headlines have disproportionately focused on the on-again, off-again, tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but U.S. tariffs on imports from China have increased by 20%—alone enough to push the average effective U.S. tariff rate to above 5%, well above the 3% peak during the first Trump presidency. We expect the U.S. economy will be hurt by higher tariffs on imports from China, particularly, in the heavily trade integrated manufacturing sector. Some of that impact will spill over to weaker manufacturing activity in Canada as well.

Canada’s retaliatory measures are more targeted than U.S. policies but will increase Canadian prices

Canada’s (partial) retaliatory measures are designed to encourage substitution away from U.S. produced goods, but will still add to Canadian costs. We’ve noted before that the U.S. accounts for about just 35% of imports targeted in Canada’s initial retaliatory measures in response to blanket U.S. tariff hikes in early March leaving (relatively) more options to substitute to alternative import products, and for consumers to substitute purchases to non-tariffed items.

Still retaliatory measures will increase costs for importers. The second tranche of retaliatory measures on another $30 billion of Canadian imports from the U.S. in response to steel and aluminum tariffs also leaves options for substitution – the U.S. accounted for about 30% of total Canadian imports of products on the list in 2024 by our count. But about half of that second set of products is accounted for by steel and aluminum products, and it will likely be more difficult for Canadian buyers to find alternative sources for many of those.

Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further

The Bank of Canada might have been in a position to end its interest rate cutting cycle early if not for the intensification of trade risks. Canadian GDP and labour market data looked to be firming enough late last year and early in 2025 to significantly raise questions about whether additional rate cuts would be necessary.

We have noted before that fiscal policy is a more effective tool to respond to the immediate impact of tariffs than monetary policy. Interest rate cuts impact the economy broadly and with substantial lags, while the initial impact of trade shocks shows up quickly and are concentrated in a subset of highly trade exposed industries.

But the reality is that trade disruptions will weigh on growth in coming quarters and uncertainty is already threatening to choke off what had been early positive signs for business investment. And, interest rates are still relatively high—the BoC’s March rate cut left the overnight rate right in the middle of the 2.25% to 3.25% range that the BoC views as having a neutral impact on the economy. We expect the BoC will cut the overnight rate to 2.25% by the summer.

Tariffs and uncertainty to slow the Canadian economic recovery

Our base case assumption continues to forecast slow Canadian output growth in 2025, driven by slower population growth, and significant tariff risks. Consumer spending is expected to expand at less than half of the pace seen in the prior year as population growth slows and households facing uncertainty from the trade wars save more as a precaution.

February’s sluggish home resales data signaled weaker residential investment, and we expect that weaknesses to continue through mid-year as trade uncertainties prompt buyers and sellers to retreat to the sidelines.

We expect growth in 2025 will still look better in per-capita terms than it did in 2024 or 2023. Improvements are expected in the second half of the year as interest rates continue to move lower. But we expect escalating tariff risks will significantly derail planned increases in business investment, particularly in the highly trade sensitive manufacturing sector. We anticipate both imports and exports will be negatively impacted by threats of a trade war.

Provincial overview

The ongoing trade war is playing out differently across Canada. The latest round of U.S. tariffs is hitting trade-dependent provinces hardest, while others remain more insulated.

We expect growth in Ontario (1.2%) and Quebec (1.1%) to be most impacted by new trade disruptions, given their manufacturing bases have been at the centre of the dispute. New Brunswick (1%) is also expected to be hard hit with its heavy reliance on U.S. demand.

Provinces with a diverse mix of trading partners and sectors are likely to fare better as falling interest rates unlock pent-up demand and exports are redirected to new markets. Still, spillover effects from weaker performing provinces are likely to weigh on growth.

B.C. is one of the few provinces poised for a recovery this year. High household debt make it especially sensitive to interest rate movements, making space for growth to accelerate 1.5% in 2025. B.C. is also among the least exposed to U.S. demand, giving it a layer of insulation from the ongoing trade conflict.

Alberta (2.4%) and Saskatchewan (1.9%) are expected to remain among the top provincial performers this year, driven by resilient resource sectors despite potential headwinds from U.S. tariffs. Manitoba (1.4%), however, is likely to see growth below the national average as its close economic ties to trade-sensitive provinces weighs on momentum.

Out east, we see most economies shifting gears lower as population growth slows and spillover effects from decelerating growth in neighbouring Ontario and Quebec hamper demand. However, growth is still expected to remain above the national average for most of the region—except for New Brunswick.

BRITISH COLUMBIA – Lower interest rates to provide a boost

We expect B.C.’s economy to gain some momentum in 2025 with growth accelerating to 1.5%. Ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. will weigh on investment sentiment and the external sector , but B.C. is less vulnerable to tariffs than other provinces. This puts it in a relatively favourable position to weather uncertainty. Consumers have also been quick to adjust spending habits amid lower interest rates, boosting the economy.

Our real GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged from our December outlook as it already accounts for sluggish business investment driven by economic uncertainty and the completion of major projects. New and potential tariffs—particularly on Canadian lumber—is a clear downside risk and may result in future revisions to our forecast.

At 1.5%, we expect growth to remain in line with the national average, accelerating from our 2024 estimate of 0.9%, reflecting stronger employment gains and consumer spending.

B.C. consumers have ramped up their spending faster than expected as interest rates fall, providing a boost to economic growth at the tail end of 2024. This is a trend we see continuing into this year as the lagged impact of past interest rate cuts ease consumer debt burdens and unlock pent-up demand. Additional rate cuts in 2025 will help too.

Though the export and investment outlook has clouded, it’s not all bad news in those sectors. B.C.’s government is already streamlining regulations for the North Coast Transmission Line to support LNG and critical mineral projects in response to trade disruptions. In fact, the province has already fast-tracked 18 resource projects worth a combined $20 billion to boost exports to overseas markets.

A weakening Canadian dollar may also lessen the impact of new trade challenges. In addition to offsetting potential cost increases for U.S. importers (due to tariffs), it may bode well for provincial tourism this summer also as more Americans take advantage of a stronger currency. The weaker Loonie and souring relationship with the U.S. could also make domestic tourism for Canadians more popular this summer.

ALBERTA – Leading the pack

We continue to expect Alberta’s economic growth to outpace all provinces in 2025, though potential headwinds from U.S. trade tariffs prompted a slight downward adjustment to growth from 2.8% to 2.4%. Relatively strong population gains and increased oil production—supported by the Trans Mountain Pipeline (TMX) expansion—are expected to remain key drivers of growth. We have also revised our 2024 growth estimate lower, from 2.7% to 2.4%, reflecting a late-year pullback in housing starts.

Alberta relies heavily on U.S. demand for exports with approximately 89% of its merchandise exports flowing south, but energy products account for the majority at about 82%. U.S. tariffs pose a downside risk to the outlook, but its impact could be partially offset by higher oil prices paid by U.S. refiners and currency adjustments, rather than a direct hit to oil production.

Oil production reached a record high in 2024, supported by the TMX expansion. Output is expected to remain strong with the pipeline now in its first full year of operation. Exports through TMX have already reached contracted capacity helping to diversify Alberta’s markets, and boosting the relative price producers receive.

Population growth remains a key strength even though it’s set to slow markedly. We think it’s likely to exceed 2% in 2025, which would be the strongest rate among provinces despite being roughly cut in half relative to 2024. The province’s affordability advantage continues to attract international and interprovincial migrants. Sustained population growth and lower interest rates would sustain brisk housing market activity if it wasn’t for trade war uncertainty.

Alberta’s job market carried solid momentum going into 2025, though trade uncertainty could weigh on business investment and hiring going forward. Earlier, businesses and public sector enterprises planned to boost capital spending by a strong 8.2% in 2025, according to a Statistics Canada survey conducted largely before the U.S. threatened Canada with tariffs. Mining (11%) and manufacturing (26%) sectors were looking at significant increases, which would have stimulated economic activity and employment this year.

Lower interest rates could bring relief to consumers as household debt pressures ease. The introduction of a new 8% personal income tax bracket for those earning up to $60,000 should further support consumer spending, helping mitigate trade turbulence.

SASKATCHEWAN – Resilient amid tariff threats

Major construction projects are set to propel Saskatchewan’s economy this year, which we forecast will grow by 1.9%. Its diversified export markets with a lower-than-average 59% of goods directed to the U.S., may help moderate the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Despite broad confusion and the risks from rapidly evolving U.S. trade policy, some of Saskatchewan’s major exporters may be less vulnerable to losing business. Big export commodities like potash, canola and uranium compete against few viable domestic substitutes in the U.S. market. Tariffs could impact energy, canola and other agricultural exporters, but much of the burden may, ultimately, fall on U.S. customers.

China’s recently announced retaliatory tariffs imposed in response to Canada’s duties on Chinese EV’s and metal products last fall add downside risks to the outlook by targeting rapeseed oil, oil cakes, and other agricultural goods. Our early estimates suggest these tariffs could impact a relatively small share of Saskatchewan’s total international domestic exports—about 1.5%, or $676 million in export value 1. But, the larger risk is the potential escalation of the trade dispute. Notably, canola seed exports were excluded from China’s latest tariff list. In 2024, Saskatchewan’s canola seed exports to China were valued at about $2.2 billion, making China its largest export market.

Ongoing major construction projects, like Phase 1 of the Jansen potash mine, are expected to keep the construction sector robust, supporting employment growth. Capital spending intentions indicate an 11% increase in expected spending for Saskatchewan this year, building off strong momentum from previous years. But, the trade war casts a dark shadow. The shelving of a major $2-billion canola processing project is stark evidence of the negative impact tariff-related uncertainty can have.

Lower interest rates and subdued inflation are anticipated to support household spending, contributing to keep growth in Saskatchewan ahead of the Canadian average for a fourth consecutive year. A relatively tight labour market has kept the unemployment rate lower than all provinces except Quebec, contributing to higher wage growth, which should support household expenses this year.

The province’s affordability advantage and job opportunities have been positive drivers for its housing market—among the most active in the country in the past year. Home resales rebounded by a solid 8.8% last year, and this momentum is expected through 2025 barring a major economic hit from the trade war.

1. Includes domestic merchandise exports classified under HS codes 03, 16, 0203, 071310, 151411, 151419, 151491, 151499, 230641, and 230649, in 2024

MANITOBA – Tariff clouds roll in

Manitoba’s growth is expected to be below the national average this year, expanding by 1.4%. This, in part, reflects the significant uncertainty the trade war has created for exporters, businesses and households.

With approximately 70% of Manitoba’s international goods exports destined for the U.S., it remains highly vulnerable to trade disruptions. Additionally, its strong interprovincial trade ties with Ontario and Quebec—both highly exposed to U.S. tariffs—introduces more potential downside risks to Manitoba’s outlook.

Major trade headwinds and its broader impact on confidence could weigh heavily on the job market, where we expect the unemployment rate to rise to 6.3% this year.

Meanwhile, lower interest rates will provide support for consumer spending and housing demand. Home resales rebounded solidly last year—rising 11.3%—and we would (normally) expect solid momentum to be largely sustained in 2025. The reimplementation of the fuel tax at the start of 2025, however, will be an added cost for households, which is likely to partly offset the positive effect of lower interest rates.

Capital spending intentions for 2025 were projected to rise by 3.2% (before the trade war was launched), which represents a smaller nominal increase than previous years. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs may have further dampened investment plans. The mining ($132 million) and transportation and warehousing sectors ($202 million) were looking at hefty increases, which could help cushion the economy against a more pronounced slowdown.

Public sector construction investment remains a positive force, bolstered by a substantial five-year capital investment plan.

ONTARIO – In the eye of the storm

Ontario carried more momentum in the second half of 2024 than we previously anticipated. Businesses ramped up capital spending as the Bank of Canada continued cutting rates, and consumer confidence perked up as debt loads lightened. This prompted us to bump up our 2024 growth estimate to 1.5% from 0.7%. It also set the stage for a stronger growth trajectory in 2025. Ongoing trade turbulence, however, would likely have a significant curbing effect.

All things considered, we expect growth will decelerate to 1.2% this year—well behind the national average rate of 1.5%. Ontario’s deep trade ties with the U.S. and manufacturing-focused economy will likely put the economy in the eye of the storm, halting momentum built in the back half of 2024.

Ontario is the most vulnerable to trade disruptions with the U.S. Its deeply integrated supply chains pose a significant liability, given prime targets for tariffs (including the auto sector and steel) strike right at the heart of Ontario’s manufacturing base.

Tariffs on autos, in particular, would be a significant blow to the economy. Autos account for more than a quarter of Ontario exports with more than $5 billion in vehicles and parts funnelled to the U.S. in 2023—equivalent to 14% of GDP. While getting a reprieve from tariffs—being CUSMA compliant—any strain in this sector could trigger widespread job losses, particularly in manufacturing where 10% of Ontario workers are employed.

Tariffs on steel have been a focus for the U.S. administration, representing another hurdle for the Ontario economy this year, given U.S.-bound steel accounts for 4.2% of Ontario’s total exports. While some of the costs will be passed on to U.S. consumers—as seen during the 2018-19 tariff period—Ontario producers will still face significant pressure, weighing on overall growth.

The manufacturing sector appeared poised for a strong year before the trade war intensified. Results from Statistics Canada’s Capital Expenditure Intentions Survey (conducted prior to the latest tariff developments), projected an 8.7% increase in overall investment intentions in the province in 2025, led by a 24% surge in manufacturing sector investment. In the current tariff environment, however, it’s unlikely capital intentions will be followed through in full.

QUEBEC – Uncertainty puts a damper on growth

This year should normally be one of a transition toward more balanced growth in Quebec with consumers, businesses, government, and the external sector contributing positively.

Lower inflation and declining interest rates will set a more constructive landscape for domestic demand after two challenging years. But the trade war with the U.S. is complicating the outlook. The uncertainty it generates could weigh—potentially heavily—on investment and spending decisions. Our base case forecast has growth easing to 1.1% this year from 1.3% in 2024. Sharper deceleration is clearly a risk should the conflict escalate.

The BoC’s series of interest rate cuts since June got the ball rolling faster for households over the second half of last year. It led to steady recovery in the housing market—which returned to pre-pandemic activity levels by year-end—a pick-up in residential construction and stronger consumer spending growth, including for motor vehicles and other big-ticket items. We expect these trends to stay positive in 2025 as we look for the central bank to cut further, but anxiety over trade is likely to dampen them.

A softening demographic outlook will also generate headwinds. Population growth is set to slow materially this year as immigration is slashed. We think it could ease to 0.6% from 2.4% in 2024. Booming immigration since 2022 has been a significant tailwind for the economy—as in other parts of the country—though not without stresses on infrastructures, including housing.

The picture isn’t particularly robust for businesses either. Quebec’s strong capital spending run in recent years is losing steam. Non-residential capital expenditures levelled off last year on an inflation-adjusted basis and surveyed intentions for 2025 point to a meagre $730 million (1.1%) advance in nominal terms. In fact, private sector intentions are for a $290 million (-0.9%) decline in spending this year, led by a sharp $630 million drop in electrical equipment manufacturers’ plans—in part reflecting the indefinite postponement of a major electric vehicle battery project. Plans for hefty increases in the utilities ($1.3 billion) and public administration ($500 million) sectors more than offset the private sector softness.

NEW BRUNSWICK – Highly exposed to U.S. trade conflict

New Brunswick’s heavy reliance on U.S. demand and its weak consumer spending environment are weighing on its outlook. Though uptick in manufacturing sales at the end of last year has prompted a slight upward adjustment to our 2024 growth estimate, to 1.3% from 1.1%, but we maintain our view that growth will decelerate to 1% in 2025.

New Brunswick is among the most exposed to the ongoing trade conflict with the U.S. It’s by far the most reliant on U.S. demand with 90% of its exports heading south. Refined oil products dominate these exports, making up 64% of shipments to the U.S. And, while energy is not under as much scrutiny as some other Canadian goods, tariffs (imposed and threatened) still pose a risk to the export outlook—which accounts for more than a third of GDP.

The trade war also threatens to subdue consumer spending despite relief coming from lower interest rates. Households are less indebted than in other provinces, and while t his helped shield consumers from financial strain over the last few years, lower rates are unlikely to give as big of a boost to consumption now that they’re coming down. Per capita spending at retail stores declined 1.5% year-over-year as of Q4, in part reflecting weaker wage growth from loosening labour markets and falling consumer confidence.

Capital investment is a bright spot with solid increases planned this year. The public sector will account for more than half the rise in non-residential capital expenditures with an increase of $299 million in 2025 (13% y/y) . The private sector is also expected to contribute another $263 million (8% y/y), almost all of which is set to come from the manufacturing sector. Together, the planned investment is set to boost capital expenditures 10% compared to 2024—the second largest percentage increase of any province. Escalation of the trade war, however, could cause businesses to scale back.

NOVA SCOTIA – Fiscal stimulus helps economy stay on rails

Nova Scotia is less exposed to tariffs—both potential and current—compared to other provinces. It has the smallest share of exports going to the U.S. and investment, primarily driven by the government, is expected to grow further this year. Tax cuts for businesses and households should support increased private sector expenditures as well.

Rapidly slowing population growth and trade-related uncertainty, however, are set to restrain the overall pace of expansion. As a result, we expect the economy to remain on a path of modest expansion, growing 1.5% in 2025—a tad weaker than the 1.6% rate we estimate for 2024.

Non-residential capital expenditure intentions are up by almost half a billion this year (based on Statistics Canada’s CAPEX survey), with the government leading the surge. Increased government capital investment will help sustain positive economic momentum during an otherwise turbulent time for investment. Its capital plan aims to build on the $3.5 billion in capital expenditures committed in 2024, driving a 17% increase in planned capital spending for 2025.

Tax cuts announced in Budget 2025 will help cushion households and businesses from a pullback in consumer confidence. The 1 percentage-point reductions in the HST (effective April 2025) and small business tax (from 2.5% to 1.5%) come alongside an increase to the personal basic income amount . These measures should help stabilize spending patterns and support productivity during this period of heightened uncertainty.

Lower inflation, declining interest rates and strong wage gains will be positive for consumer spending. But, the number of consumers will rise much more slowly as cuts in immigration are implemented. Population growth—a key driver of economic strength in recent years—has now slowed to 1.4% year-over-year (as of Q4 2024), the second-lowest rate in the country.

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND – On solid footing

We’re revising our 2024 growth estimate higher for P.E.I. to 2% from 1.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected construction investment and resilient consumer spending towards the end of last year.

But our views for 2025 haven’t changed much. We continue to expect the wind down of capital projects and sharp moderation in population growth will cause growth to decelerate in 2025 to 1.7%

The economy entered 2025 on solid footing. An earlier population boom still keeps the construction and manufacturing sectors busy. In fact, manufacturing sales recorded a 12% increase (y/y) in Q4—the largest increase in nearly two years—while non-residential construction investment neared peak levels.

Still, there are signs that these tailwinds are dying down. The external environment has become more of a challenge, given Canada’s contentious trade relations with the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on Canadian seafood. Though most of P.E.I.’s exports are sold domestically, insulating the island more than some other provinces, the U.S. and China remain a critical source of demand for P.E.I.-made goods and food products. A weakening loonie may cushion some of the impact, but trade disruptions pose downside risks.

Domestically, a pullback in housing starts and a lull in private capital investment intentions signal a calming of construction activity this year. Capital investment intentions are set to dip 1.3% in 2025 due to a pullback from the manufacturing sector (-$85 million). Unlike the other Atlantic provinces, public investment is not expected to offset the decline.

Moderating population growth will also put downward pressure on growth this year. Population growth reached an apex in Q4 2023 and has since halved to the pre-pandemic norm (about 2%). Demographic trends have softened aggregate retail sales growth as the pace of new consumer arrivals slows. Upcoming interest rate cuts would typically support higher per capita spending, but weaker external conditions could keep consumer spending subdued.

NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR – Faring better than most

Newfoundland and Labrador’s growth momentum is expected to moderate in 2025 following an exceptional year for consumer spending and rebound in natural resource production. Weakness in the construction sector and a cloudy outlook for exports, however, will restrain growth this year—containing the real GDP expansion to 1.7% in 2025.

Still, a continued (albeit moderate) rebound in oil production and favourable labour market dynamics should keep the real GDP expansion ahead of the national average this year. This would also mark the first back-to-back positive growth in almost a decade.

There are several factors that will keep growth running hotter than most other provinces this year. The unemployment rate remains close to historical lows at 10.5% (as of February 2025). Tight labour markets have supported solid wage gains (4.9% y/y), which are growing faster than almost any other province.

Tight labour market dynamics are unfolding alongside falling interest rates and easing inflation—which is now the lowest in the country at just 0.8% year-over-year. Together, these characteristics are rebuilding consumer purchasing power—supporting a rebound in per capita spending. We see this trend continuing into 2025 as the BoC cuts interest rates further.

Still, trade disruptions with the U.S. pose significant risks. Though Newfoundland and Labrador has the most diverse set of trading partnerships, it’s economy remains highly reliant on trade—with exports accounting for roughly a third of GDP. Faster growth in the euro area, the province’s second largest trading partner, should offset some of this downside.

Internally, the province faces challenges as well. Non-residential construction investment has been on a downtrend for most of the last five years, and new tariff threats appear to be dampening the outlook further. Statistics Canada’s survey of capital expenditure intentions suggests another year of sluggish investment is likely in store. Capital expenditure intentions are down 5% from 2024—the sharpest drop in Canada—and these were surveyed before the U.S. launched its trade war. Most of the decrease appears to be the result of government (-$287 million) tightening its belt after a big spending year in 2024. A notable drop in mining (-$247 million) has also been recorded.

Detailed forecast tables:

Macroeconomic forecast details
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Provincial forecast tables
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Interest rates and Key FX rates
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About the Authors

Frances Donald is the Chief Economist at RBC and oversees a team of leading professionals, who deliver economic analyses and insights to inform RBC clients around the globe. Frances is a key expert on economic issues and is highly sought after by clients, government leaders, policy makers, and media in the U.S. and Canada.

Robert Hogue is an Assistant Chief Economist, responsible for providing analysis and forecasts on the Canadian housing market and provincial economies.

Nathan Janzen is an Assistant Chief Economist, leading the macroeconomic analysis group. His focus is on analysis and forecasting macroeconomic developments in Canada and the United States.

Rachel Battaglia is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the Macro and Regional Analysis Group, providing analysis for the provincial macroeconomic outlook.

Claire Fan is an economist at RBC. She focuses on macroeconomic analysis and is responsible for projecting key indicators including GDP, employment and inflation for Canada and the US.

Abbey Xu is an economist at RBC. She is a member of the macroeconomic analysis group, focusing on macroeconomic forecasting models and providing timely analysis and updates on economic trends.

Salim Zanzana is an economist at RBC. He focuses on emerging macroeconomic issues, ranging from trends in the labour market to shifts in the longer-term structural growth of Canada and other global economies.

This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.