Climate Crunch: A Climate Plan In Trump’s Era

Issue #09

Most of the world forgot to do its climate homework

➔ Why scrapped energy projects are back in the news
➔ The Trump Tracker
➔ Introducing the Trade Hub

Hot takes

➔ Most of the world forgot to do its climate homework. As many as 95% of countries, missed a U.N. deadline to submit new climate pledges for 2035. The UN said many countries had asked for more time to ensure their nationally determined contributions (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change under the Paris Agreement are “first rate.” However, Canada submitted its plan, pledging to reduce emissions by 45-50% below 2005 levels by 2035. To track Canada’s progress on its net-zero journey, read our annual report Climate Action Report 2025.

➔ Energy East, Northern Gateway and Saguenay LNG. The long-dead energy projects are back in the news as the momentum to extract resources and ship to places not called the U.S. are gaining momentum. But a shake-up in regulations would be needed for companies before we see movement on any of these projects. Enbridge CEO Greg Ebel, the erstwhile backer of the Alberta-to-B.C. Northern Gateway oil pipeline, said it would require “real changes” from governments before the project would move forward. That includes legislative changes, including repealing Bill C-69 , also known as the “no-more-pipelines-act” by its detractors. François Poirier, CEO of TC Energy, which had proposed the Alberta-to-East-Coast Energy East oil pipeline back in 2013, said Canadian projects will need to compete with the company’s other opportunities in the U.S. and Mexico. But a quick overhaul of the regulatory environment, Poirier noted, would signal Canada’s willingness to get projects off the ground.

➔ BP pressed the reset button on its strategy. The U.K. energy company said it’s restructuring its low-carbon business “for growth, but in a more capital-light way .” Analysts believe the changes would lead to a watering down of the company’s climate ambitions. BP is also the target of an activist investor after the company lost nearly a quarter of its value over the past two years, with investors souring over the previous CEO’s policies. New CEO Murray Auchincloss, a key architect of BP’s net-zero strategy in the previous regime, is now helming the “ fundamental reset”.

➔ The launch event of our annual report on Canada’s climate progress sparked some great ideas. We hand-picked five for the next five years gleaned from an event to celebrate our Climate Action 2025: A year for rewiring report. Email me at Yadullah.hussain@rbc.com if you’d like a PDF of the briefing.

Carney’s plan

Are we talking about a climate plan in this day and age? Yes, yes, we are. Mark Carney, former governor of two G7 central banks, and leading contender to take the Liberals into the next federal election, has shared some ideas on his platform on how to weave climate into economic policy. First, like Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, he wants to axe the consumer carbon tax.

Here are the contours of his some of yet-to-be-fleshed-out climate plan:

➔ Strengthen the industrial carbon tax. Carney wants to refine the Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS) to 2035, tightening benchmarks to maintain a strong carbon price signal and curb credit oversupply. The plan also calls for inter-provincial collaboration. Last year, we worked with the Canadian Climate Institute and Clean Prosperity on using industrial carbon pricing to strengthen Canada’s competitiveness.

➔ The plan is heavy on consumer-focused incentives. Expanding the Greener Homes Grants, increasing heat pump subsidies and implementing alternative financial tools, such as discounted mortgage insurance for energy-efficient homes are some of the ideas. The plan does not have a dollar figure for all these incentives and subsidies. Another idea that caught our eye: leveraging technology for real-time home energy assessments to drive smarter consumption decisions. (We wrote about that, too).

➔ Mobilizing capital. Hard to mobilize capital when tariff threats and hard stares from across the border are making investors nervous. The plan also calls for finalizing Canada’s long-delated transition taxonomy. “Mandate broad coverage of climate risk disclosure for companies across Canada,” is also going to be a tough one to accomplish in an era when the U.S. is actively going after companies adhering to climate rules.

Chrystia Freeland, Carney’s Liberal rival and former Deputy Prime Minister, also has a plan to turn Canada into an “energy superpower” through major economic investment tax credits.

If she were to become PM, Freeland has pledged to “double down” on getting Canadian energy and resources to market, build West-East pipelines to reduce Canada’s dependence on the U.S. and secure its energy sovereignty. Critically, her government will fast-track 10 regionally important projects, of which three must be critical mineral projects, for faster approvals each year.

We will continue to monitor the climate and energy platforms of other candidates and other parties and summarize them in the run-up to the federal elections.

TRUMP TRACKER

A rundown of U.S. president Donald Trump and his administration’s pronouncements, orders, action and musings that could impact climate policy and trends.

➔ Action #1: The U.S. approved a proposal from the country’s largest grid operator in the development of 50 new power plants.

➔ Implication: Supposedly agnostic to energy sources, the projects are expected to encourage natural gas power, deemed more reliable than wind and solar power, in meeting urgent power needs. Renewable energy developers and environmental groups think the 50 new power plants “would jump the queue” and add to the delays in development of new wind turbines and solar farms.

➔ Action #2: An oil and gas advocate was nominated to run the Bureau of Land Management.

➔ Implication: If approved, Kathleen Sgamma , will oversee grazing, logging, drilling and wildlife conservation on 245 million acres of public land. The role is seen as part of the White House’s “energy dominance” vision that leans more on conventional energy than renewable power.

➔ Action #3: On Day One of his appointment as Secretary of Interior, Doug Burgum issued several orders that would have a direct impact on carbon emissions. While “prosperity by deregulation,” and resuming offshore oil and gas leasing in several areas are among the highlights of the Secretary’s Day One orders, there’s one more thing that caught our eye: taking steps to prioritize updating the U.S. Geological Survey’s list of critical minerals and accelerating the ongoing geological mapping of the country.

➔ Implication: From Greenland to Canada, the new (it turns a month old today!) U.S. administration sees critical minerals as a precious prize. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau even suggested critical minerals was driving talk of U.S.’s threat to annex Canada through “economic force.”

➔ Action #4: Paper straws are out, plastic straw are back in, according to a new presidential executive decree.

Implication: “I don’t think plastic is going to affect a shark very much, as they’re munching their way through the ocean,” is an actual Trump quote.

Phew, we’re sure we missed a few. Let us know any pertinent orders and regulations and we will look to include them in the next edition.

Trade Hub

We can’t talk climate without talking trade these days. Trade Hub , a new digital platform by RBC, aims to highlight opportunities for Canada in an economic order shaped by energy and national security. We will examine several key areas where Canada can leverage its strengths, including agriculture, energy, critical minerals and manufacturing supply chains, and the regulations and policies that drive investments into the country.

Read our latest insights here:

➔ Resourceful: How Canada can strike a new commodity deal with the U.S. and others

➔ A playbook for how to measure a tariff shock in Canada

➔ 50 ways to leave your lover: Sizing the impact of a trade breakup

ICYMI

➔ How each country’s emissions and climate goals compare—a handy guide

➔ How to build new Canadian homes out of harm’s way

➔ What are Ukraine’s critical minerals – and why does Trump want them?

➔ Climate aid projects fighting extremism and unrest are closing down

➔ Don’t say climate: how cleantech is rebranding as national security in the Trump era

The Institute In Action

➔ Institute head John Stackhouse is on a panel at the Canadian Federation of Agriculture’s annual general meeting Feb 25-26 in Ottawa. Moderated by Tyler McCann, Acting Director at the Canadian Agri-food Policy Institute, the Canada’s Place in the World panel will explore evolving geopolitical and trade dynamics and how they impact Canada’s foreign and trade policy, with particular emphasis on the implications for Canadian agriculture.

➔ Economist Farhad Panahov attended the 2025 Canadian International Auto Show. Look out for his latest commentary on Canadian EV demand trends soon.

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