Issue #10

➔ Meet Mark Carney, the consumer carbon tax eliminator
➔ Welcome to the era of “energy addition”
➔ Trump tracker: Keeping tabs on the U.S.’s whirlwind climate policy changes

Hot takes

➔ The consumer carbon tax is gone. It was Prime Minister-designate Mark Carney’s first policy pronouncement 12 minutes into his victory speech after sweeping the Liberal race, as he promised during his campaign. The federal elections, presumably coming soon, will not just determine how a new leader handles the Trump Tornado, but also signal the trajectory of Canadian climate policy. On the surface, Carney, a former UN Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre could not have more different policy playbooks, but they appear to be on the same page on resource development—and scrapping the consumer carbon tax.

➔The latest B.C. budget captured the country’s shifting mood from environment first to economy foremost. The David Eby government is fast-tracking resource projects, including 18 major critical mineral and energy projects worth around $20 billion. Several of these critical mineral projects are vital for energy transition. At the same time provincial allocations for key climate-related ministries such as environment and parks, energy and climate solutions, water, land and resources won’t see significant increases over the three-year fiscal budget plan. Sales tax exemptions for used electric and other zero-emission vehicles is also at an end. Still, there was some environmental cheer: $100-million were earmarked for electric heat pump rebates, while the clean building tax credits were extended by a year.

The Great American Energy “Addition”

By John Stackhouse

The divide between the United States and Europe is not just about Ukraine. The two poles of Western power are now an ocean apart on energy and climate policy. And Canada will feel the tension, no matter who wins a federal election.

The cross-Atlantic divide was a key theme of Day 1 of CERAWeek, one of the world’s biggest energy conferences, in Houston. Energy Secretary Chris Wright kicked off the day with a blistering attack on climate policies, renewable energy sources and the very idea of an “energy transition.”

Wright shared details of his plans to boost LNG exports, and increase domestic electricity, to reduce costs. That will mean more natural gas, coal and nuclear. In other words, get ready for more of everything, or what he calls “energy addition” rather than energy transition.

Europe’s energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen offered a different view, saying his home country of Denmark is proof of an energy transition, with its shift from Russian gas to Danish renewables (plus American LNG). Europe will save 45 billion euros this year because of energy switching, he said. “There’s no back-tracking on our new green deal. In fact, it’s fast-tracking.”

Salim Samaha, BlackRock’s global head of energy, took a middle ground, suggesting “the zeitgeist has swung too far. There is a lot of energy addition and energy innovation that will hit us very quickly.”

He expects fossil fuels to be prominent “for a long time,” even as clean energy sources continue to grow.

So who will pay for and build “all of the above”?

The pressures to build more conventional energy in the U.S. will draw a lot of capital, equipment, machinery and skilled labour—all of which are in short supply anyway. For those wanting more gas power, turbine prices are up three-fold, and not available at any price until 2030. And for those wanting nuclear, the U.S. will need to outpace its best year ever by 60%, and do that every year for 20 years, to meet its goals.

Get ready for a lot more trade-offs, not just between energy sources but between how those sources are permitted, regulated and priced.

Read John’s full blog here and follow him on LinkedIn to read his latest insights.

TRUMP TRACKER

A scan of executive orders, departmental notices and government actions impacting the environment.

➔  #1: The Environmental Protection Agency launched its “biggest deregulatory action in U.S. history.”

➔ Implication: Deregulation of power plants and the oil and gas industry, and a revamp of the greenhouse gas reporting program are among the 31 actions planned, aimed at “driving a dagger straight into the heart of the climate change religion,” said EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.

➔ #2: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration terminated more than 800 employees, or about 7% of its workforce.

➔ Implication: Weather and climate disasters has cost the U.S. economy US$2.9 trillion since 1980, and the latest cuts come as natural disasters become more frequent and severe. Last year saw the second-highest number of billion-dollar disasters, costing over US$180 billion. The downsizing could undermine the effectiveness of critical agencies such as the National Hurricane Center and the Aviation Weather Center.

➔ #3: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) plans to scrap its previous conclusion that greenhouse gases’ endanger public health and welfare. 

➔ Implication: The U.S. administration has already rolled back about 100 environmental regulations. Expect the latest move to unleash a chain of court battles.

➔ #4: The U.S. Department of Agriculture removed climate-change information and data from its websites.

➔ Implication: The Northeast Organic Farming Association of New York and two environmental groups have already sued the USDA for archiving and unpublishing pages focused in climate change. Climate data, tools and information is vital for farmers to make decisions about planting crops and managing land amid extreme weather patterns.

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