Issue #05

➔ Team Trump’s pet climate peeves and preferences
➔ Meet the most critical metal of them all
➔ COP29: Baku into a corner

Which is the most critical mineral of all for decarbonization? Lithium, it turns out. The International Renewable Energy Agency and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs came to that conclusion after crunching data to account for future demand, resource availability, recycling and substitute potential. Cobalt is the second most critical. The good news for Canada: both are found in copious amounts with new mines proposed.

How can Indigenous Nations tap a $45-billion equity gap? A new CAI report recommends pathways to help build Indigenous capital muscle. Financial and non-financial partnerships in major project developments can emerge as made-in-Canada model for inclusive economic growth, writes Varun Srivatsan, director of policy and strategic engagement, in the report. It’s starting to happen: the Federal government, along with the B.C. and Manitoba governments, announced loan guarantee programs in 2024, to spur Indigenous participation in several energy projects. Read our report here.

Cooking oil may be powering your next Air Canada flight. The airline has sourced 78 million litres of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), made of waste oil grease from cooking oil tallow and other feedstocks. Provider Neste calls the Singapore-produced vintage “unblended neat.” Combined with conventional jet fuel, the concoction can reduce GHG emissions by up to 80% over the fuel’s lifecycle. Still, SAF accounts for a mere 0.54% of the jet fuel market—although global production has tripled in a year.

Canada needs to install a 100 EV charges…a day. Currently, there is “no obvious pathway” to a Canadian charging infrastructure that can help hit the federal goal of 100% zero-emission vehicle sales goal by 2035, according to The Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association. Canada needs 446,800 public charging ports by 2035 to support the ZEV sales mandate—we are currently at 30,000. CVMA’s concerns carry tremendous weight as the association represents Ford, General Motors and Stellantis—companies that are betting their future on EVs dominating North American roads in the not-so distant future.

Climate Action Award: To Trottier Family Foundation, Peter Gilgan Foundation, Ronald S. Roadburg Foundation, Chisholm Thomson Family Foundation, David Keith and Kirsten Anderson, Sitka Foundation, Vohra Miller Foundation and Allan Shiff for donating $405 million to climate-related initiatives.

Climate Fail Award: To the Valencia regional government, which failed to send an emergency alert to mobile phones until after 8pm on the first day of catastrophic floods in Spain— nearly 13 hours after the state weather agency warned of “very intense” rain.

Trump’s energy czars, nominees and hopefuls

Energy markets are on edge as U.S. president-elect Donald Trump rolls out his choices for key posts that energy markets will either love or hate. Many of these nominees are subject to confirmation, but they offer early signals on the president’s intentions.

One early insight: many of these candidates’ constituencies and home states have benefitted immensely from the Inflation Reduction Act, which Trump has labelled the “green new scam.” Also, the U.S. oil and gas production has grown uninterrupted regardless of who’s been in the White House (see chart). For Canada, the Trump energy squad’s focus on critical minerals, oil and gas and nuclear is good news, although there seems less clarity on EV policies.

Doug Burgum, interior secretary and energy czar
Loves: “Data-driven” approach to managing. The former CEO of a software company is governor of oil and agro state North Dakota. Pushed for Net Zero emission goals for his state by 2030 primarily through carbon capture technology.

Hates: Not much. Neutral on renewables and eager to extract critical minerals.

Burgum would lead a new National Energy Council encompassing agencies and departments involved in “ALL forms of American Energy,” and scrap “totally unnecessary” regulations. Two big tasks: channeling IRA incentives and rebates, and delivering Trump’s US$2 per gallon pledge.

The interior secretary requires Senate confirmation, but not the czar role.

Chris Wright, energy secretary (nominee)
Loves: Fracking. The MIT graduate helped advance the U.S. shale gas revolution by developing a new fracking method. Once drank frack fluid on camera.
Hates: The phrase “climate crisis;” also thinks Net Zero emission pledges are “silly.”

Wright is also part of the Burgum-led National Energy Council.

John Thune, Senate majority leader (elected)
Loves: Wind power and biofuels. Wind energy powers 55% of electricity of his home state of South Dakota. He is also bullish on nuclear.
Hates: Joe Biden’s pause on liquefied natural gas approval, calling it a move to “satisfy climate activists on TikTok.”

Thune’s support for wind power potentially has him at odds with Trump who has promised to end offshore wind projects on Day 1.

Kristi Noem, U.S. Department of Homeland Security

Loves: Wind and hydropower. The South Dakota governor believes her state is the ideal place to develop next-gen nuclear technologies.
Hates: Her pet dog. Noem was also one of five governors who declined to accept the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) planning grants that Washington offered every state to address climate pollution. Also refused to distribute rebates on energy-efficient home appliances.

Neom is a nominee for an entity that oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency at a time of frequent weather disruptions. FEMA is the country’s biggest flood insurer.

Mike Waltz, National Security Advisor
Loves: American energy dominance. Hawkish on Iran and Russia that could likely lead to more stringent energy sanctions on both countries. He helped craft the Stop Harboring Iranian Petroleum (SHIP) Act legislation, which may be revived in the new administration.
Hates: Pause in LNG approvals by the Biden administration.

The national security adviser does not require Senate confirmation.

Marco Rubio, Secretary of State
Loves: Critical minerals supply chains. Introduced a bipartisan bill in June to “develop a strategy…to ensure that the U.S., its allies and global partners can count on a diverse and secure end-to-end supply of critical minerals.”

Hates: China, Iran and Russia—which could have implications for both renewable and oil markets.

Elon Musk, co-lead, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
Loves: Tesla EVs. And U.S. federal government loans, tax breaks and other EV policies that have spurred Tesla’s rise.

Hates: Big governments and regulators that have regularly tangled with Musk over Tesla’s safety issues. Now he could gut those agencies.

Vivek Ramaswamy, co-lead, Department of Energy Efficiency

Loves: Fossil fuels. Has financial interest in an asset management fund that manages an energy ETF—DRL—that tracks major oil and gas companies.

Hates: President Biden’s EV subsidies, which he says, makes America more dependent on China. Possible sticking point with co-DOGE lead?

Beyond The Cop29 Doom Loop

COP29 has not exactly been climate diplomats’ shining moment. But it wasn’t all doomscrolling. Here are some of CAI head John Stackhouse and the team’s top takeaways from the Baku event so far.

#1 Rejoice Article 6.4
In a landmark decision on the first day of the global climate talks, COP29 officially adopted the new operational standards for a mechanism of the Paris Agreement under Article 6, setting the stage for a global carbon market.

The adoption of article 6.4 sets the stage for operationalizing Article 6, which has faced years of deadlock. It establishes a centralized carbon market that allows countries to trade emission credits, or A6.4ERs, to meet their Paris Agreement commitments.

#2 Show me the money
To many UN skeptics, COP29 might as well be on Mars, because the agenda seems otherworldly. While establishing rules for a global carbon market is a start, most of the oxygen is going to the Big Ask, which in UN-speak is called — brace for it — the New Collective Quantified Goal, or NCQG. The goal: $1 trillion a year. We may see Elon on Mars first. A more likely commitment will be $300 billion.

Remember, the same process committed to $100 billion a year more than a decade ago, and didn’t get to that 2020 goal until 2022. We’ll see if NCQG is different.

#3 Deal or no deal
One of the biggest changes in climate action over the past decade has been a surge of charitable funds looking to invest in sustainable projects. The poster child may be Jeff Bezos’s $10-billion Earth Fund, whose CEO, Andrew Steer, is in Baku to remind the climate crowd that traditional financial players aren’t leveraging philanthropic money nearly enough. He’s been pushing the idea of “a deal team for the planet” — some kind of version of the World Bank that could pull together government-backed funding, private sector capital and philanthropic funds for the big, non-market projects to cut emissions.

#4 Upside down world
The U.S. president-elect Donald Trump is contemplating an exit from the climate talks, and France—the architect of the Paris Agreement—withdrew its top negotiator at Cop 29. But Russia, the world’s fourth-biggest emitter, thinks climate talks should not be “interrupted despite political differences,” its top diplomat said. China also wants constructive dialogue on climate change with the U.S. under the Trump administration. An upside down world, indeed.

Curated by Yadullah Hussain, Managing Editor, RBC Climate Action Institute.

Climate Crunch would not be possible without John Stackhouse, Myha Truong-Regan, Sarah Pendrith, Farhad Panahov, Lisa Ashton, Shaz Merwat, Vivan Sorab, Caprice Biasoni and Frances Dawson.

Have a comment, commendation, or umm, criticism? Write to me here (yadullahhussain@rbc.com)

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