Note: This page is an archive. Recent updates to the consumer spending tracker can be found here.

    • Canadian consumer spending on discretionary services tracking higher so far in Q2, supported by strong travel spending. Though the rate of increase is strong, it is still running about half the pace of growth over April and May compared to Q1.
    • Purchases of discretionary goods also increased over April and May though they were still running below levels observed late last year. Sales from retailers (ex autos) have been little changed so far in Q2—declining in March but lifting in April and May, according to both early Statistics Canada reports and our own tracking.
    • Spending at bars and restaurants is little changed in Q2, but our own tracking is edging marginally higher over April and May (seasonally adjusted).
    • Travel spending continues to run strong in Q2—consistent with rising reported airport passenger traffic. Prices for travel remain high, but as of April, airfares were below year-ago levels for the first time since summer 2021.
    • Consumer spending still looks resilient even as higher debt payments and inflation cut into household purchasing power. Still, the pace of spending appears likely to slow from the 5.7% (annualized) surge in Q1. We continue to expect rising household debt servicing ratios. And consumer delinquency rates are flagging softer spending to follow over the second half of this year.



  • Canadian consumer spending on discretionary services tracking higher so far in Q2, supported by strong travel spending. Though the rate of increase is strong, it is still running about half the pace of growth over April and May compared to Q1.
  • Purchases of discretionary goods also increased over April and May though they were still running below levels observed late last year. Sales from retailers have been little changed so far in Q2—declining in March but lifting in April and May, according to both early Statistics Canada reports our own tracking.
  • Spending at bars and restaurants is little changed in Q2, but our own tracking is edging marginally higher over April and May (seasonally adjusted).
  • Travel spending continues to run strong in Q2—consistent with rising reported airport passenger traffic. Prices for travel remain high, but as of April, airfares were below year-ago levels for the first time since summer 2021.
  • Consumer spending still looks resilient even as higher debt payments and inflation cut into household purchasing power. Still, the pace of spending appears likely to slow from the 5.7% (annualized) surge in Q1. We continue to expect rising household debt servicing ratios. And consumer delinquency rates are flagging softer spending to follow over the second half of this year.


  • Discretionary goods spending edged lower through Q1. Our own data aligns with Statistics Canada’s seasonally adjusted retail sales figures, which showed declines in February and March.
  • But discretionary services spending is still trending higher on a month-over-month basis.
  • This is still a pent-up demand story—and service-sector activity will likely soften as higher interest rates cut further into household purchasing power with a lag.
  • Travel spending has also persisted, with Canadians continuing to shrug off a 15% year-over-year jump in traveller accommodation prices.
  • However, real (excluding price impacts) restaurant spending softened in recent months and was flat by our count in March.




  • Overall spending remains steady as consumers continue to purchase non-essential services.
  • Canadians continue to indulge in holidays despite higher flight prices and hotel costs.
  • But they continue to cut back on restaurant spending. Meantime, the number of grocery transactions are flat.
  • And some signs of weakness in goods spending have emerged, mirroring a pullback in auto sales.




  • Canadian discretionary spending held up through February, even as higher interest rates and rising grocery inflation sapped spending power.
  • There were some signs of restaurant spending edging lower (excluding inflation). But consumers continue to favour dining out.
  • Canadians are making fewer grocery purchases on average, but transaction values are holding steady as food prices continue to rise.
  • Air transportation costs rose 28% from pre-pandemic levels but Canadians are still prioritizing travel. Spending growth on trips abroad continues to outpace domestic travel.





  • Spending is holding up into February, despite the Bank of Canada’s 425 basis points of hikes.
  • The average daily number of restaurant transactions trended slightly higher in January as Canadians ate out in bigger numbers. Grocery purchases fell.
  • And Canadians are still booking trips, as travel spending held flat alongside airport traffic.
  • The Bank of Canada didn’t stand in the way of Valentine’s jewellery purchases either, which were tracking year-ago levels.
  • Higher debt servicing costs and lower real wages have yet to induce a pullback in discretionary spending—though we still expect these factors to eat into household purchasing power.






  • Cardholder spending held steady at the start of 2023, with spending on services outpacing spending on goods.
  • Cardholders continued to spend on non-essentials, though sales at restaurants have been edging lower in recent months.
  • Travel spending remains firm after the holidays.
  • We continue to expect consumer purchasing power to flag following 425 basis points of hikes to the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.





  • Total cardholder spending held steady in December, but year-over-year growth in Q4 (+8.9%) was the weakest since the recovery began in early 2021.
  • Holiday spending was largely in line with year-ago levels (+1.5%), implying weaker real spending in the face of higher prices.
  • The moderation in accommodation spending was interrupted by holiday travel, with traveler spending rebounding briefly at the end of December.
  • But real restaurant spending pulled back in the fourth quarter—an early sign that higher interest rates and decades-high inflation are weighing on consumer discretionary spending.
  • With prices trending higher, growth in Canadian purchase volumes (the number of transactions) weakened drastically in December across both essential and discretionary purchases.




 

  • Black Friday marked a strong start to the holiday shopping season in Canada as sales surged higher. Spending on electronics is running below prior holiday shopping periods, but spending on apparel, gifts, books, music, and entertainment is strong.
  • So far, holiday jewellery spending is 6% below 2021 levels, but previous trends suggest a boost in purchases from last minute shoppers may yet arrive.
  • Early signs suggest a moderation in accommodation spending is continuing though restaurant spending is still running strong.
  • Spending is expected to soften in 2023 as interest rate hikes and inflation cut further into household purchasing power.

* Holiday goods spending categories have been revised from the previous iteration and include purchases classified by granular sub-categories within the following NOMI categories: Books, Journals, Music, & Photography, Record Shops, Apparel, Shoes, & Accessories, Clothing, Department Stores, Electronics. Gift, Hobby, Toy, & Game Shops, Jewellery, Shoes, and Specialty Retail.


 

  • Canadian cardholder spending plateaued in recent months—but nevertheless remains above year-ago levels as we head into the crucial holiday shopping period.
  • Data over the next few weeks will provide a critical indicator of just how much inflation and higher interest rates have eaten into Canadians’ purchasing plans.
  • Nearly 20% of holiday shopping purchases are typically made over the next week, coinciding with U.S. Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions that have increasingly spilled over the border to Canada.
  • We expect spending to remain strong through the holiday period—but continue to look for a slowdown in early 2023 as higher interest rates and inflation cut into household purchasing power.

The early bird catches the deals

There are two peak holiday shopping periods. The first takes place around U.S. Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions. The second comes in the weeks leading up to December 24th. After Black Friday, December 23rd is the second-busiest shopping day of the year.

  • In pre-pandemic years, the first peak shopping period (late November) accounted for over 40% of total holiday shopping volumes. Late shoppers accounted for a slightly smaller share of total purchases.
  • The highest volumes of electronic goods purchases were typically reported on Black Friday and Boxing Day. And the biggest day for jewellery sales was December 24th (jewellery sales are already ticking up this year.)

Hate crowds? Shop in early December

  • The first weekend in December is typically one of the quieter holiday shopping weeks. At this point, the early birds have secured their Cyber Monday deals and the last-minute shoppers still have a few weeks before panic buying ensues.
  • And don’t wait to buy your turkey! Grocery shopping volumes are highest in the two days leading up to December 25th.

Or shop from home

  • During the pandemic, roughly half of holiday gift purchases were made online. That compares to just 25% in 2018.

Home for the holidays?

  • More Canadians are packing their bags this year following pandemic disruptions in both 2020 and 2021. Travel spending is tracking much stronger ahead of the holiday period.

*Holiday goods spending includes purchases classified by the following NOMI categories: Art & Galleries, Books, Journals, Music, & Photography, Music, Record Shops, Apparel, Shoes, & Accessories, Clothing, Computer Software, Department Stores, Electronics. Gift, Hobby, Toy, & Game Shops, Jewelry, Shoes, Specialty Retail, Data Services.

 

  • Any growth in spending is now largely a function of price growth rather than bolstered consumer demand.
  • Real grocery spending is only slightly above pre-pandemic levels, while nominal spending is up 20% due to decades-high inflation. Indeed, prices of food at grocery stores were up 11.4% in September.
  • Average nominal spending on gas is trending slightly higher, as prices rebound from September lows. Real spending is holding steady.
  • Home-related spending continues to plateau as the housing market correction unfolds. Consumers put renovations and home improvements on pause.
  • Travel spending continues to flatten out after the summer boom and hotel accommodation is levelling off.





 

  • Card spending on discretionary goods and services continues to plateau following a spring surge.
  • Restaurant spending is holding up well despite persistent inflationary pressures.
  • But hotel spending (and broader traveller accommodation) is moderating from a summer spending boom.
  • And total travel spending is leveling off alongside airport traffic into September and October.
  • Both real and nominal gas spending moved higher at the beginning of October alongside prices that jumped 11.6% month-over-month. Real spending on gas is now above pre-pandemic levels for the first time this year.

 

  • Hurricane Fiona weighed heavily on cardholder spending in Atlantic Canada at the end of September.
  • However, overall cardholder spending held steady at 30% above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Travel spending is cooling off as the summer travel season comes to a close.
  • Nominal spending on gas fell (-6.7% in September) alongside gas prices (down 8%).
  • Canadians completed more grocery and restaurant transactions in September, though total restaurant spending held flat.

 

  • Cardholder spending remains 30% above pre-pandemic levels in September, with persistent strength in the restaurant and travel sector.
  • Home-related spending remains above pre-pandemic levels, but is trending lower as the housing market cools.
  • Purchases of essentials and discretionary items levelled off into the fall with discretionary spending settling below post-lockdown highs.
  • Restaurant spending continues to flat-line though it remains well above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Average spending per transaction at gas stations is falling alongside prices.

 

  • Total cardholder spending continued to level off through August—though it remains 30% above pre-pandemic levels.
  • Travel spending flattened into late summer, hovering above pre-pandemic levels as airport traffic continues to recover.
  • Real spending on traveller accommodation trended lower; with higher nominal spending stemming entirely from elevated prices.
  • Average gasoline transaction values are now down 11% from their peak due to lower prices.
  • The number of transactions at grocery stores declined into August, while the volume of restaurant purchases held steady.

 

  • Though it remains 30% above pre-pandemic levels, total cardholder spending continued to level off into August.
  • Restaurant spending (excluding price changes) have edged lower as inflation takes a bite out of consumer purchasing power.
  • The post lockdown travel booking frenzy has also plateaued as spending on hotels flattens out and the price of accommodation rises.
  • Canadians are still filling up their tanks despite fuel price fluctuations. Real spending on gasoline has held steady.




 

  • Total cardholder spending remained 30% above pre-pandemic levels in July but has edged lower so far in August.
  • Average spending (per visit) at gasoline stations dipped on lower prices – total spending on gasoline still below pre-pandemic levels controlling for price increases.
  • Total restaurant sales flattened in July, with the number of transactions down 3.5% this past month.
  • Canadians are making more grocery store purchases. Compared to 2019, grocery transaction volumes trended higher in July (now 9.5% higher than 2019).
  • But our cardholder data has yet to show that Canadians facing soaring inflation are spending a greater share of their income on essentials. In fact, consistent with pre-pandemic levels, roughly one-third of total cardholder spending can be accounted for by spending on groceries, utilities, and communications.




 

  • Cardholder spending still running ~30% above pre-pandemic levels, but easing modestly in July
  • Both goods and services spending growth levelled off into July
  • Average transaction values at the pump have fallen 3.5% alongside a 9% drop in gasoline prices.
  • Both real (excluding price changes) and nominal restaurant spending has plateaued with higher prices accounting for roughly one-third of the increase in restaurant spending from pre-pandemic levels
  • Pent up travel demand persists as airports struggle with labour shortages





 

  • Total spending was flat in June, holding steady at 30% above pre-shock levels.
  • Canadians continue to spend more at the pump — on average $60 in June per transaction, up from $57 in May. All of this increase is due to rising prices.
  • Inflation is also responsible for one third of the growth in restaurant spending.
  • But Canadians continue to dine out more frequently—spending 30% above pre-pandemic levels—as growth in grocery store spending slows.
  • A surge in travel and hospitality purchases has yet to subside, even as goods spending flattens out.





 

  • Canadians are still buying more than they did before the pandemic—but early data suggests spending is plateauing.
  • After a steady climb, total cardholder spending remains 30% above pre-pandemic levels in June—the fourth consecutive month at this level.
  • Canadians continue to make more purchases at restaurants, despite higher prices.
  • But the recent surge in domestic travel spending shows signs of moderating.





 

  • Total card spending surged 32% above 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels in May.
  • Spending on goods has plateaued at high levels but demand for travel and hospitality services continues to soar.
  • Rising purchases at restaurants are not just a result of higher prices. The number of transactions is increasing too.
  • Spending on international travel rose 36% from pre-pandemic levels this month.
  • Average spending at the pump continued to trend higher through May.





 

  • Total card spending continues to run roughly 30% above 2019 (pre-pandemic) levels.
  • Advance bookings for travel are surging.
  • For the first time since the pandemic, spending on travel and hospitality is overtaking purchases of merchandise.
  • Average spending at the pump keeps climbing with surging gas prices.
  • Even as some pandemic habits fade, Canadians continue to buy more groceries online.





 

  • Card transactions held firm at 30% above pre-COVID (2019) levels in April—with strong momentum carrying into May.
  • High contact services spending is closing the gap with already strong goods purchases as shoppers opt for more visits to restaurants and hotels.
  • Little evidence exists to suggest higher inflation is undermining spending momentum on essential items like groceries.
  • But higher gas prices are exacting a hefty toll at the pump, particularly as Canadians travel more, and show a greater interest in cross-border travel.





 

See update from April 21, 2022

  • Canadian household spending remains elevated in April, climbing 30% above pre-COVID levels.
  • Goods sales remained strong, driven by increases in clothing, furniture and grocery purchases.
  • On the services side, spending on travel and hospitality continues to surge back as the economic impact of the pandemic subsides.
  • Higher food prices have yet to curb consumer appetites for dining out. Both the number of transactions and amount spent on restaurants is up.

 

  • Aggregate spending is powering into spring, holding ~ 30% above pre-shock (2019) levels—and more than 10 percentage points above January when Omicron restrictions weighed on activity.
  • A global increase in oil prices pushed up the average sales amount at gas stations, but the broader lift in spending is not just a result of inflation. The number of transactions has also increased.
  • Higher prices have pushed up ‘non-discretionary’ costs (food, shelter, gasoline, etc.), but discretionary travel and hospitality spending continues to strengthen.
  • Travel spending surged back above pre-pandemic levels as more families invested in March Break holidays.




 

  • Travel spending touched pre-COVID levels for the first time as pandemic restrictions eased.
  • The domestic tourism recovery continues to outpace international travel but Canadian spending on restaurants and hotels abroad has also been rising.
  • Spending on services overall continued to recover alongside another increase in purchases of physical merchandise.
  • Surging prices and geopolitical uncertainty from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are headwinds for the economy. But firmer job markets, easing COVID-19 restrictions, and pent-up demand for travel/hospitality services are supporting strong near-term spending.





 

    • Overall household spending quickly shook off the impact of the new COVID-19 variant and is now nearing pre-Omicron peak growth rates.
    • Travel spending rebounded after plunging in December and January.
    • Shopping at retail outlets built on late January momentum, and is tracking a gain in February.
    • The reopening of indoor dining rooms in Quebec and Ontario (in time for Valentine’s Day) allowed a rapid bounce back in restaurant sales.
    • The post-Omicron spending surge aligns with views that the macroeconomic impact of Omicron will be smaller and shorter-lived than previous waves, leaving the Bank of Canada free to begin hiking interest rates on March 2.





 

    • Canadians spending more on services as virus threat eases

      • Consumer spending remained elevated in early July, running 13% above pre-shock (July 2019) levels as virus containment measures eased.
      • Early signs are emerging of a long-awaited shift in purchases from consumer goods to services.
      • Retail sales rebounded sharply in June, while spending on hospitality and entertainment took over as drivers of growth in July as Canadians ventured further away from home.
      • Spending on hard hit travel and hospitality sectors posted the largest gains to-date in July—though travel spending remains more than 40% below pre-covid (2019) levels.
      • Spending was strongest in regions that eased containment measures earlier.





       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      • Overall household spending quickly shook off the impact of the new COVID-19 variant and is now nearing pre-Omicron peak growth rates.
      • Travel spending rebounded after plunging in December and January.
      • Shopping at retail outlets built on late January momentum, and is tracking a gain in February.
      • The reopening of indoor dining rooms in Quebec and Ontario (in time for Valentine’s Day) allowed a rapid bounce back in restaurant sales.
      • The post-Omicron spending surge aligns with views that the macroeconomic impact of Omicron will be smaller and shorter-lived than previous waves, leaving the Bank of Canada free to begin hiking interest rates on March 2.





      •  

      • Overall spending drifted higher in late January and early February as COVID restrictions eased.
      • Spending on physical merchandise recovered after a soft start in January with retail sales tracking a 1% decline (after controlling for seasonal changes) for the month as a whole.
      • Services spending also looks decidedly better as Omicron concerns subside.
      • A lifting of pandemic restrictions, particularly in Ontario and Quebec, boosted indoor dining as restaurants reopened.
      • Travel spending bounced back after plunging during holidays, but remained 40% below pre-COVID levels.
      • Early signs of a spending rebound support expectations that the Omicron wave will have a shorter-lived impact on the macroeconomic backdrop.





       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      • Household spending slipped lower in January as renewed pandemic restrictions kept consumers closer to home in some regions. But unlike during the winter 2021 lockdowns, spending remained 10% above pre-COVID (2019) levels.
      • Spending on groceries drifted higher as options for dining out dwindled in large parts of the country.
      • Quebec and Ontario saw large declines in restaurant spending. However, we expect a partial recovery in the near-term given plans to lift some restrictions at the end of January. .
      • Retail stores largely stayed open in this latest virus wave, but the Omicron threat (and subsequent increase in self-isolations) pushed the share of purchases made online higher again.
      • Travel spending began the year on weak footing after falling due to the initial blow of Omicron.






       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      • Travel spending fell sharply in December; dropping 60% below pre-pandemic (2019) levels.
      • Spending on other high-contact services like restaurants and gyms also edged lower and will fall further in January as containment measures are re-imposed across several regions.
      • Overall spending remained resilient, but after rising 20% above pre-COVID levels in the autumn months, it slipped back to just 14% above that benchmark.
      • By our count, goods spending at retail stores likely moved 2% lower in December after controlling for seasonal wiggles due to lower clothing and electronics sales.
      • Online shopping remained well below pandemic highs—contrasting with the 2021 winter virus wave when vaccines were not widely available and in-store retail shopping options were limited.






       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      • Overall spending remained solid as the holiday shopping season picked up—but the recovery in services spending lost some momentum amid virus concerns.
      • Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales tracking was little changed in November from October, controlling for normal seasonal changes.
      • Online sales at big box and electronics stores are rising.
      • Early signs suggest the omicron variant is stalling the travel spending recovery, though spending on hospitality services is holding up so far.





       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      • Household spending in November remains elevated at more than 20% above pre-shock levels.
      • Spending on retail goods picked up early in the month—fueled by stronger purchases of electronics and at building material stores. We’re tracking a 1% month to date gain in retail sales, accounting for seasonal swings.
      • The share of purchases made online is rising as holiday spending picks up.
      • Travel bookings continued to recover in November, but are still below pre-pandemic levels (~-25%).
      • Spending on restaurants and accommodation is holding around pre-pandemic levels while overall spending is still rotating back to the hard-hit services sector.






       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      • Overall spending remained elevated, tracking ~20% above 2019 levels as virus concerns eased.
      • Canadians continued to visit restaurants and diners even as patio season began winding down.
      • Recovery in travel spending gained traction as the holiday season approaches, but spending in the sector is still ~ 30% below 2019 levels.
      • Spending on hotels and other accommodation slowed and Canadians spent more on entertainment.
      • Some online shopping habits have become entrenched—including for grocery purchases—despite the removal of many restrictions on bricks and mortar retail.







       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      • Consumer spending remained strong in October with card transactions tracking almost 20% above pre-COVID (2019) levels.
      • Travel spending picked up, but remained below pre-pandemic levels. Quebec led all other regions in the travel spending recovery.
      • Purchases continue to rotate back toward services, with restaurant spending still elevated in October. Meantime, spending on goods is holding steady.
      • Though some apprehension about large gatherings remain, high levels of vaccinations have enabled many to prioritize self-care and entertainment— reinforcing the shift in spending to services






       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

        • The latest swell of virus infections weighed on the recovery in high-contact service sectors, even as overall spending remained resilient.
        • Merchandise purchases through August and September were little changed as a whole, though sales on “home comforts” like furniture and gardening rose while clothing sales declined.
        • Travel spending remains sluggish as Canadians stay closer to home.
        • Spending that involves social interactions, like restaurant and art gallery visits faded in September—though it remained well above pre-shock levels.






         

        Read report PDF

        Download

         

      • Overall spending stayed afloat in September but the spread of the Delta variant has paused a rotation in consumer spending from goods to services.
      • The initial shift to services spending kicked off when provincial economies re-opened over the summer—with food services sales spiking 11% in July as retail sales fell, according to Statscan.
      • Though services held onto earlier gains in September, there are now early signs of a slowdown in the hospitality sector and travel spending remains very soft.
      • We expect the virus to keep a lid on the recovery in high-contact services spending in the near term.





       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      • The recovery in spending plateaued in August after growing at a hot pace through the summer. Still, overall spending remained well-above pre-COVID levels.
      • Spending at restaurants and hotels eased somewhat, after jumping 16.5% above pre-shock (2019) levels in August.
      • Rising Delta infections appear to be disrupting holiday plans, causing spending on travel to slide lower again.
      • Canadians continue to shift their spending toward services and away from hard goods. Retail sales (of merchandise) are tracking down in August, even after controlling for ‘normal’ seasonal movements.
      • The extent to which rising infections will derail the recovery in spending remains uncertain. But for now, spending on the hardest-hit hospitality sectors appears to have held up through August.





       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      • Consumer spending held up in early August following big gains in June and July.
      • Purchases of retail merchandise easing slightly in August as spending rotates back towards high-contact services.
      • Spending on restaurants and accommodation continued to rise albeit at a slower pace than the rapid rebound earlier in the summer.
      • Canadian travel spending is still higher than in the spring, but remains well below pre-shock levels.
      • Domestic tourism continues to support the recovery; central Canada lagging other regions.




       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      • Overall spending started on a strong note in August, cementing gains made over the last few months.
      • Hospitality spending showed no sign of slowing as restaurant traffic hit a post-pandemic high.
      • For the first time this year, hospitality spending edged back above pre-COVID (2019) levels in Ontario, after trailing other larger provinces that eased restrictions earlier.
      • Travel spending held steady at 40% below pre-COVID (2019) levels after jumping in recent months.
      • Rising virus case counts suggest the pandemic is far from over. Nevertheless, vaccine distribution has gone relatively well in Canada so far, likely limiting the need for strict/extensive future containment measures.




       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      July 29, 2021

      • Canadian household spending remained well-above pre-shock 2019 levels in July building on June’s gains.
      • Spending continues to rotate to the hard-hit hospitality and travel sectors, although spending on physical merchandise also edged higher.
      • Spending on dining and lodging jumped from 29% below pre-shock (2019) levels June to 1.5% above in July.
      • RBC data shows retail sales (excluding services) increased by 2% to date in July on a seasonally adjusted basis – reversing much of the remaining softness seen in over the third virus wave.
      • Western provinces are leading the recovery in travel spending; central Canada lagging.
      • Against an increasingly more optimistic backdrop, Canadians are finding more ways to socialize outside their homes with recreational goods and clothing sales drifting higher.





      June 30, 2021

      • Canadian household spending rebounded as virus containment measures eased – running 14% above year-ago levels, and 11 % ahead of (pre-shock) levels in June 2019.
      • Retail spending is tracking about 6% above May in June (controlling for typical seasonal changes), partially retracing the almost 9% combined decline over May and April.
      • Strongest growth came from products/services hit hardest by spring restrictions. Spending on clothing rebounded sharply, as did spending on food & accommodations as provinces started to re-open.
      • Spending in the hospitality sector jumped as provinces began to reopen – regions slower to loosen restrictions, like Ontario, lagged but picked up steam in the second half of the month.
      • Early green-shoots in travel spending continued to emerge, although spending is still far below pre-shock levels.
      • With vaccine distribution ramping up and restrictions easing, spending is expected to continue to strengthen in July.




       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      June 17, 2021

      • Spending picked up as many regions began to loosen restrictions.
      • After cooling off in April and May, retail sales are tracking ~5% higher to-date in early June (controlling for normal seasonal fluctuations) – and that’s before non-essential retailers re-opened in Ontario.
      • Even travel spending is showing a pulse for the first time in more than a year.
      • Green shoots are emerging within the hard hit hospitality sector, as spending at restaurants and on lodging both are tracking substantially higher in June.




       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      June 6, 2021

      • Spending edged lower again in May with virus containment measures largely still in place for the month.
      • Retail spending is tracking 3% lower in May compared to April, controlling for normal seasonal changes.
      • Clothing sales have once again been hit by shopping restrictions.
      • Hard hit hospitality & travel sectors remain deflated, but the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel is getting brighter as vaccination rates continue to rise and provinces prepare to re-open.




       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      May 20, 2021

      • Overall retail spending edged lower again in May – controlling for ‘normal’ seasonal movements – but held above pre-pandemic levels. Spending on retail merchandise is tracking lower (4% in May to-date) but still resilient compared to last year’s collapse.
      • COVID sensitive spending remained anemic amid continued restrictions.
      • Spending in travel and hospitality sectors still exceptionally weak.
      • Household spending still expected to surge as virus containment measures ease.





       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      May 5, 2021

      • Re-imposed virus containment measures across several regions slowed spending in April, but purchases remained relatively resilient. After increasing 7% over February and March, retail spending likely declined by about 4% in April as regions restricted in-store foot traffic and Ontario retailers were closed to all but curb-side and online purchases.
      • Still, this decline pales in comparison to what we saw last spring where retail activity dropped by more than 30% over two months. Canadian shoppers have altered the way they purchase goods with increasing numbers embracing online shopping. Even with the pullback, spending in April was almost 50% above the exceptionally low levels of April 2020.
      • Spending on clothing as well as high-contact services like dining and accommodation slid under the weight of new restrictions.
      • While it is true that many businesses have adjusted well, hard-hit (hospitality) industries —operating under the heaviest restrictions — will continue to be anemic until the broader economy reopens. Vaccine-induced immunity remains an integral component in supporting a sustained reopening. We expect most of the adult population will receive one dose by June, up from 41% today.
      • Until vaccines get broadly distributed, we look for this soft patch to extend into May (with many restrictions still in place). But, similar to the winter lockdowns, spending will quickly rebound as virus spread and containment measures ease.



       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      April 22, 2021

      • Resurgent virus spread and re-imposed containment measures are once again having an impact, although spending remained resilient compared to a year ago.
      • Overall spending remained slightly above pre-pandemic 2019 levels over the first half of April (controlling for an earlier Easter spending bump in 2021 than in 2019) – and a whopping 58% above sharply depressed spending levels a year ago during the first wave of virus spread and containment measures.
      • Apparel spending declined sharply in early April as re-imposed containment measures restricted in-store shopping in parts of the country and led many to shelve shopping plans. While this decline retraced gains seen over February and March, the pull back in spending to-date remains far smaller than in the first wave of restrictions.
      • Spending will very likely soften further in coming weeks as containment measures in the third wave of virus spread ramp up. We expect to see retail sales decline in April as several regions restrict instore retail activity.
      • However, even in regions where in-store shopping has been shuttered, curb-side pickup remains an option. And the limited impact of the second wave of lockdowns over the winter on retail purchases reinforced that both households and businesses have become more comfortable with contactless transactions.
      • Restrictions continue to have a much larger impact on spending in the already hard-hit ‘high-contact’ travel and leisure service-sectors that were already sharply depressed.
      • Better days are approaching, including for the hardest-hit industries. Government support programs continue to provide households with purchasing power as vaccine distribution ramps up. Spending on retail merchandise has recovered quickly following earlier virus waves, and likely will again this time.
      • A more significant recovery in hard-hit, high-contact services industries like accommodation & food services is not expected until vaccines are widely distributed – but the timeline for when that will happen continues to inch forward with Canada now expecting ~50 million doses delivered by the end of June.




       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      April 7, 2021

      • Overall spending continued to improve in March. Year-over-year comparisons are now being heavily influenced by exceptionally weak spending a year ago, but overall spending is still tracking ~2% above February levels on a seasonally adjusted basis by our count.
      • Spending on retail products continued to edge higher – the data is consistent with another economy-wide increase in retail spending in March, albeit likely smaller than the 4% bounce-back in retail spending Statistics Canada already reported for February.
      • Early indicators pointed to some recovery in the hard hit food and accommodation sectors as containment measures eased. Notwithstanding, there is still a huge spending shortfall in these sectors and we continue to expect that this deficit will not be eliminated until vaccines are distributed to the broader Canadian population.
      • Growing optimism among consumers led to broad based increase in spending. Notably entertainment spending and clothing continues to show upward trends.
      • Virus resurgence has prompted some regions to re-impose containment measures that will once again weigh particularly on spending in the hospitality sector in April. But vaccine distribution is also ramping up, and that is expected to pave the way for less restrictions and more household spending in those hardest-hit sectors over the summer.



       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas using a 7 day rolling sample starting January 1st of each year that is indexed to pre-covid levels which are calculated as the average spending for the month of February 2020. To examine the impact of seasonal factors, we also show each’s year spending profile which depicts monthly trends in spending. Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      March 22, 2021

      • Easing restrictions across most parts of the country cleared a path for Canadians to increase spending in early March. Overall sales jumped 6.6% from a year ago. That year-over-year growth comparison is beginning to be pushed higher by weaker year-ago spending levels in the first wave of virus spread – travel spending in particular was already softening in early March 2020.
      • Spending on the hospitality sector remains weak and will continue to be weighed down by health and safety restrictions.
      • The race between vaccine distribution and rising Covid-19 case counts, including new variants, continues to intensify. The travel and hospitality sectors will remain under pressure until the threat of the virus has eased.
      • It’s been a year since the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic and much has changed since then, including the way Canadians shop. Here are three trends that emerged:

        • Without containment measures, consumers will spend. Consumers spending on merchandise bounced back quickly after winter lockdowns as retail store-fronts reopened. That also happened after the first wave last spring, and the latest downturn was much smaller with households and businesses having adapted to contactless purchase options. Of course, government income supports for those out of work helped prop up household purchasing power.
        • Nesting matters in an increasingly physically distant world: Household spending accounted for 17% of total spending before COVID. One year later, 21% is being spent on home goods. As the service sector reopens, some of that cash will likely be re-directed to spending outside of the home.
        • Retail digitalization is here to stay: The virus threat has kept many businesses operating under restrictions of one type or another. Stores have responded by increasing e-commerce infrastructure and sales, helping to accelerate a trend that was already in place pre-COVID. In one notable development, online grocery shopping has become more entrenched, even though stores in this space were allowed to open their doors.
      • Spending shifts and highlights








         

        Read report PDF

        Download

         

        RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

        We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

        Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

        Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      March 9, 2021

      • Canadian household spending bounced back in February as virus-containment measures eased in much of the country. After dipping in December and January, overall card transactions were 2.7% above year-ago levels.
      • Data suggest ‘core’ retail sales (excluding motor vehicle and gasoline sales) rebounded, rising as much as 7% above year-ago levels in February – reversing much of the slowing over December and January and confirming the relative resilience of sales compared to the spring 2020 lockdowns. The recovery happened despite restrictions on in-store shopping in much of Ontario, suggesting sales could strengthen further in March.
      • Household purchasing power continues to be propped up by significantly larger-than-usual government income supports. With incomes holding up well, households are positioned to spend after virus-containment measures are lifted.
      • Spending on clothing appears to have bounced higher after slowing sharply over the holidays.
      • High-contact services remain very weak. Spending on food & accommodation was still running 40% below year-ago levels in February.
      • Accelerating vaccine distribution represents the light at the end of the tunnel for service-sector industries. Households have ample purchasing power to ramp up spending quickly. And that light is getting closer with Canada set to receive enough doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to provide at least a first dose to most of the population over the age of 60 (who accounted for 70% of hospitalizations and over 95% of deaths from COVID to-date) by mid-April.

      Spending shifts and highlights









       

      Read report PDF

      Download

       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      February 24, 2021

      Big picture and the key takeaway:

      • Retail spending picked up pace in February as lockdowns eased in some regions, although spending in ‘high-contact’ service sector industries remained exceptionally weak.
      • By the week of Feb 11th RBC’s consumer spending data showed overall purchases were about 1% shy of year ago levels compared to -5.2% in January and -2.3% in December.
      • Consumer spending patterns were more resilient in the second wave of lockdowns than in spring of 2020, with less evidence of panic buying.
      • COVID has forced many organizations to alter the way they sell. The expansion of online sales infrastructure and greater comfort with contactless transactions by both businesses and consumers have lessened the economic impact of the second virus wave.
      • Statistics Canada reported that retail sales declined 3.3% in Jan, following a 3.4% drop in December. Still this was a more muted impact relative to spring lockdowns. Early signs of a spending recovery in February add to the list of evidence that the economy will avoid a contraction through the second virus wave with upside risk growing to our forecast for a flat GDP print in Q1.


      Spending shifts & highlights

      • Clothing sales showed a modest recovery although spending remains well below year ago levels.
      • Entertainment goods spending remained weak due to the inability to participate in outdoor activities.
      • Spending on travel and hospitality sector services remains sharply depressed, and won’t recover until vaccines have been widely distributed and virus containment measures lightened.
      • Restrictions on dining left many Canadians with little choice but to shop at grocery stores.
      • Online sales volume remains robust.





       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      February 9, 2021

      • Continued public health restrictions reduced spending about 4% in the last two weeks of January
      • In-person spending at restaurants, entertainment venues, and on travel remained slow albeit above first wave levels
      • Spending on household and specialty goods stayed strong while apparel held steady at lower levels





       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      January 25, 2021

      • Spending at the start of the New Year was weaker as lockdowns imposed at the end of 2020 continued.
      • Canadians spent 5% less in the second week of January than over the same period last year, after trimming spending 9% the week prior.
      • Retail categories saw declines across the board but some, including department and electronics stores, saw smaller declines than might have been expected after the holiday season.





       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      January 11, 2021

      • Spending fell slightly through December: slowly at first as more limited lockdowns were in place, and more rapidly around the holidays as tightening rules slowed Boxing Day spending.
      • Discretionary categories, like entertainment and electronics, fell more than already-ailing areas like travels and dining out.
      • Preliminary estimates suggest spending was down 1.4% from December 2019. Volumes fell over 6% in the week ending December 22, the worst weekly change since mid-May.
      • With relatively few post-lockdown days included in our sample thus far, spending could be lower as 2021 data start to roll in.






       

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      December 14, 2020

      • Lockdowns began to impact consumer spending after weeks of rising case counts.
      • Overall spending fell, down 2.5% from a year earlier in the last week of November.
      • At the same time, online spending rose, nearing levels not seen since the spring.
      • Spending on travel and restaurants continued a weeks-long decline, while categories like home goods and apparel saw lockdown-related drops.







      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      November 30, 2020

      • Card spending volumes continued to defy case counts through mid-November.
      • Overall spending was up slightly, about 2%, from year ago levels.
      • Rising case counts did seem to encourage online sales: consumer categories broadly saw increases in remote transactions.
      • Rising retail sales were driven by a boost in electronics, and entertainment spending rebounded, as Canadians found ways to entertain themselves during a colder second wave.







      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      November 16, 2020

      • Canadians continued to spend despite an accelerating second wave of virus cases across much of the country in October.
      • Spending was just above year ago levels, up 2% in early November.
      • Household related spending started to slip, as the end of DIY and construction season neared.
      • Lockdown-sensitive categories kept suffering: travel and restaurant spending continued to slow.






      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others. We exclude purely financial transactions such as cash advances and insurance from spending.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      November 2, 2020

      • Canadian consumers continued shopping, despite rising case counts in much of the country.
      • Overall spending was up just shy of 3% in late October, with most categories stabilizing.
      • Online spending continued to capture a larger share of spending, with 51% of transactions occurring remotely versus about 46% in mid-summer.
      • Amazon’s Prime Day on October 13 and 14 likely contributed to some of the mid-October rise in online transactions.







      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      October 21, 2020

      • Consumer spending was volatile across categories at the end of September, but held on to recent gains and started October up 4%.
      • Restaurants and other entertainment that relied on warm weather to buoy purchases through the summer saw slower spending into October.
      • Travel spending continued declining, down 71% relative to last year.






      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      October 5, 2020

      • Canadian spending trends continued on solid footing with few signs of second wave worries impacting consumer confidence — yet.
      • Overall consumer spending stayed solid, up about 5% in mid-September.
      • Though late summer travel spending retrenched, other pandemic-responsive categories like clothing remained strong.


      Fall fashion buoyed spending

      • Among retail categories, clothing spending continued to climb, returning to year ago levels.
      • Spending on apparel, gifts, and jewelry was up 1.5% relative to last year.
      • Other retail categories held on to gains from the past few months.


      Good weather for outdoor entertainment

      • Despite plateauing in dollar terms, entertainment spending ticked up relative to last year.
      • High golf spending during the summer likely continued into early fall— rather than slowing down as it would have in a normal year.


      But late summer travel declined

      • Slower spending on accommodation and car rentals accelerated a downward trend in travel-related purchases that has dominated in the last several weeks.
      • Travel spending had recovered partially from pandemic lows, it was still down about 60% in peak summer. It worsened again as the weather cooled.
      • At the same time, automotive spending fell slightly, in line with seasonal trends as the summer road trip season came to an end.


      Respite for restaurants was brief

      • Labour Day saw the strongest restaurant spending since before the pandemic, but the uptick was fleeting.
      • Spending on dining out quickly fell back to -6% relative to a year ago, a level it’s hovered around since July.


      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      September 21, 2020

      The usual tracker charts, unadjusted for Labour Day impacts, are included below.

      The timing of Labour Day distorted our year-over-year analysis in early September, but some trends were still clear. Many Canadians continued to do routine shopping online, perhaps because of headlines about rising case counts. Back-to-school shopping seemed to exert a less powerful force than in previous years.



      Back-to-school spending still happened

      • Monthly data through August suggest Canadians still prepared themselves and their children for the return to school, even as the debate over online versus in-person instruction raged.
      • Spending at clothing stores continued to recover.
      • Electronics spending also increased month over month, albeit at a more modest pace after being remarkably strong most of the year.



      But was less robust than last year

      • Altogether, back-to-school spending was weaker than normal, with year-over-year changes in school-related categories slowing relative to gains earlier this year.
      • Despite historically strong spending, there was little evidence of a back to school bump in software and electronics, suggesting many of the purchases that may have otherwise occurred at this time of year were done earlier in the pandemic. Higher online spending could be here to stay.
      • Some categories continue to see persistent shifts towards online spending, though remote spending was lower than at the height of lockdown in many areas.
      • However, online grocery spending has continued to grow through the pandemic, accounting for more than a third of grocery transactions by value in early September, up from about 25% in May.
      • Consumers may be shifting away from routine shopping trips in favour of delivery.





      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      September 9, 2020

      Canadian consumer spending appeared to be in a holding pattern at the end of August, with overall spending 2% higher than a year earlier but slightly slower than in early August.



      Retail spending slipped slightly

      • After staging a swift recovery in late May, spending on apparel, gifts, and jewelry ended August down about 8% relative to last year.
      • Weaker back-to-school shopping likely contributed, as electronics spending also weakened.
      • Total card spending was up about 5% relative to the same time last year.
      • Spending on household goods and services, at department stores, and on specialty goods fell slightly towards the end of the month.


      Travel spending maintained its slight recovery

      • Canadians continued to drive and spend on local travel, with auto and gas spending near last year’s levels.
      • Spending on accommodations and car rentals held near their post-pandemic peak, as Canadians fit in a final vacation before the end of the summer.
      • Entertainment spending was mixed. Spending at movie theatres increased following mid-August reopenings, but remained down sharply from last year, while spending on sporting goods fell as the end of summer loomed.



      Dining out stayed in style

      • Canadians continued to show interest in patios, with restaurant spending near year-ago levels.
      • Spending on health and self-care stuck near year-ago levels, as Canadians got back into their usual haircut routines.


      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      August 26, 2020

      • The last few weeks were uneventful for Canadian shoppers: rapid spending growth from late May through early July plateaued.
      • Most categories held steady near levels attained a few weeks ago, while spending on entertainment, dining, and self-care continued to approach year-ago levels.
      • Total card spending was up about 5% relative to the same time last year.
      • Overall, the results indicate that Canadians are venturing out more around town, but not going much further.



      Bricks and mortar seeing a welcome upswing

      • While online spending remained prevalent in some areas (e.g., groceries), in-person transactions continued to recover.
      • Spending indicates Canadians were comfortable going out to dinner, even if to a patio. Restaurant spending was buoyed by Canadians seeking in-person dining experiences, and was down just over 4% from last year’s level.
      • The share of online transactions at restaurants decreased to 17% from one-third at its post-crisis peak.
      • Health and self-care spending increased through mid-August, as gym reopenings led to an uptick in fitness spending.



      Embracing new forms of entertainment

      • Entertainment spending picked up further into August, and was down 10% relative to last year.
      • Spending was supported by still-strong spending on golf and to a lesser degree digital goods.
      • More recently, Canadians began spending again on professional sports, lotteries, hobbies, and local attractions.


      Staycationing slows

      • Travel purchases ticked down in mid-August, as spending on accommodations levelled off.
      • Parking and transit spending levelled off while gas and automotive spending ticked up, mainly on higher gas prices: both indicated steady driving habits.


      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      August 10, 2020

      • A nascent recovery in Canadian consumer spending solidified through the end of July, as more sectors of the economy reopened and government benefits continued to support consumer spending.
      • The gain in spending in July was the first monthly year-over-year gain since the pandemic began.



      Lockdown –weary Canadians turned to pleasure and pampering

      • While spending in many categories was flat in July, spending on self-care and dining improved.
      • Sales at restaurants, bars and other foodservices providers were just 9% below year ago levels at the end of July, as compared to -17% a month earlier. Canadians still opted to have the dining experience come to them: delivery and quick service restaurants have dominated recovery.
      • Spending on haircuts and massages wasn’t far from last year’s level, reflecting increased availability of personal services.


      Retail and entertainment held steady

      • After several weeks of rapid gains, spending on clothing was just below year-ago levels at the end of July.
      • Spending at department stores and household goods retailers was flat, as high home improvement spending started to cool.
      • With outdoor concerts, festivals and the like off limits, in-person entertainment spending was very low. But other categories held up.



      Forced staycations weighed on travel spending

      • Overall travel spending remained down 64% from a year earlier—still better than late March when it was 90% lower than a year prior.
      • Consumers continued to spend more on accommodations and car rentals as well as gas and parking for their own vehicles.
      • It isn’t yet clear whether the partial recovery in travel came mostly from local, mid-summer getaways.


      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      July 27, 2020

      Consumers seem to have hit their stride into July, with card volumes holding relatively steady since the end of June. Spending is hovering near year-ago levels, as many parts of the country continue to slowly re-open.

      In most categories, spending stuck close to the levels cited in our last report, strengthening a rebound several weeks in the making.



      Online spending holds strong, as Canadians avoid the mall

      • Online purchasing remained robust, with some categories seeing a lasting shift toward more frequent virtual purchases.
      • Canadians continued to embrace remote buying, particularly in categories where delivery and curbside pick-up have been broadly accepted.
      • Even as stores reopened to customers, online and remote spending remained stronger for clothing retailers, restaurants, and grocery stores as consumers avoided crowds.
      • In-person entertainment and health spending bounced back to pre-pandemic levels quickly, especially as things with few online alternatives reopened (e.g., golf courses, hair salons).



      Clothing shoppers returned with force…

      • Spending on apparel, gifts and jewelry tracked close to year-ago levels, and was down just 1% by mid-July.
      • Spending was healthy in other retail categories too, with volumes at household and department and specialty stores remaining well above levels seen last year.


      …but limits on crowds still stung

      • Nevertheless, closures continued to drag on areas of the economy that rely on gatherings.
      • Entertainment spending remained about 20% below last year’s levels as Canadians eschewed galleries and museums, and large events remained a no-go.


      Canadians embrace the open road amid international travel restrictions

      • A slight recovery in travel spending continued, led mainly by car rentals and accommodation spending, as discounts encouraged Canadians to vacation close to home.
      • Other forms of travel spending continued to drag down overall levels though, which were still about two thirds below last year.


      Haircuts, massages, and (some) gym visits level off

      • Health-related spending plateaued after a strong recovery in early June, as closures continued to sap fitness club spending and Canadians adjusted to less frequent haircuts and in-person self-care.
      • Similarly, dining spending remained below last year’s levels by 10%, despite still elevated spending on delivery and near-normal purchases at quick service restaurants.
      • Other restaurants are lagging behind, as in-person dining struggles to return to normal in the age of social distancing.


      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Online spending volumes are estimated based on the presence of an RBC card at the time of the authorization. Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      July 13, 2020

      This is the seventh report in our series examining RBC’s cardholder data1.

      Spending continued to climb through late June, solidifying a recovery in card volumes. For the first time since lockdown, spending even turned positive compared to year-ago levels during the last week of June. Growth was broad-based and was accompanied by a long-awaited uptick in small business spending.

      As consumers opened up their wallets, overall spending levels—stuck near year-ago levels in mid-June—grew 4% year-over-year by the end of the month.



      Knocked out by COVID, small business spending finally perks up

      • A mid-June survey by the CFIB suggested about half of small businesses were fully open, compared with about 25% though out May.
      • Credit card spending by small businesses recovered accordingly last month.
      • Volumes were still down about a quarter in May. By June, they’d recovered to -10%.


      Boom in online spending persists

      • Canadians who rushed to get back into stores when they reopened at the end of May haven’t forsaken the online marketplace altogether.
      • Indicators suggested a notable uptick in online spending persisted through the end of the month.
      • Online or remote charges (e.g., telephone and preauthorized payments) averaged about 45% of card spending after the pandemic struck, up from an average of 35% in 2019.
      • Discretionary spending—on dining, shopping, household goods and more—saw the largest boost, while activity that was already mostly online or pre-authorized (e.g., utilities) or was heavily impacted by the virus was little changed.



      Canadians dodge transit for the open road as economies reopen

      • Canadians appear to be driving more to avoid transit: Apple data suggest driving direction requests are up 40% relative to January, while transit directions remain down by almost half.
      • Card spending on vehicle and gas expenses has picked up – turning positive for the first time in late June after weeks of gradual recovery.
      • Spending rose 3% from year-ago levels, mostly reflecting higher gasoline prices.


      Shoppers indulge in clothing, gifts and jewelry…

      • After a brief pause through mid-June, spending at Apparel, Gifts & Jewelry stores ticked up.
      • Volumes were down about 7% by the end of the month, as compared to a fifth lower earlier in June.


      …and some mid-pandemic pampering

      • Canadians continued to spend more on personal health and wellness, particularly on haircuts and massages. Fitness spending remains down amid continued gym closures.
      • They still ordered lots of food delivery, though spending slowed as bricks-and-mortar restaurants reopened across the country.
      • Entertainment spending held firmly at lower levels, about one fifth lower than year-ago levels, amid continued closure of movie theaters, art galleries, and other in-person entertainment.



      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Pre-COVID averages are calculated as the average of the first 11 weeks of 2020, and post-COVID averages are averages of subsequent weeks.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      1Reflects fully anonymized credit and debit card spending.

      June 29, 2020

      This is the sixth report in our series examining RBC’s cardholder data1.

      The recovery in personal spending that we noted earlier in the month extended through mid-June. Overall card volumes hovered near year-earlier levels. But with some pandemic-fighting restrictions still in effect, spending on traditional early-summer pastimes wasn’t possible. And there were signs that the transition to online spending is getting entrenched.



      Mid-pandemic retail therapy

      • Canadians jumped at the opportunity to try on clothes in-store when retailers began to reopen at the end of May. By mid-June, spending had stabilized, but was still down about 25% from a year earlier.
      • Spending at other stores stayed strong as Canadians kitted out their homes for summer.


      Counting strokes, not cards

      • Golfing and gaming continued to dominate entertainment spending.
      • The continued closure of galleries, casinos, and events for 10-plus people weighed on other entertainment categories.


      Traffic worsens, but trains are still empty

      • Card spending on gas and automotive services had nearly recovered to year-ago levels in mid-June, as Canadians ventured out after the lengthy lockdown.
      • Transit and parking expenditures were still two-thirds lower than last year, though limited parking enforcement in many cities and free transit in others may have reduced spending.
      • Hotels, airlines, and car rentals continued to suffer, with spending down about 75% from a year earlier.


      More massage and haircuts

      • Spending on health and personal care had begun to recover from crisis lows, but fitness-club closures limited overall health spending.
      • Restaurant spending continued to climb, albeit at a slower rate.


      Online spending still high despite reopening

      • A new proxy for online consumer spending suggests online spending remained robust despite bricks-and-mortar reopenings in late May.
      • Spending at major online marketplaces and with services that process online payments for other merchants rose 80% relative to last May, before easing slightly into June.


      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      1Reflects fully anonymized credit and debit card spending.

      June 15, 2020

      This is the fifth report in our series examining RBC’s cardholder data1.

      The recovery in personal spending that we noted in mid-May has continued. In a very positive sign, it was hovering at year-earlier levels in early June. Spending had improved in most categories compared with late-March lows.



      While more Canadian consumers appeared willing to spend, shell-shocked small-business owners continued to exhibit caution. RBC Economics has noted in separate research that small firms have borne the economic brunt of the pandemic, with job losses at almost double the rate of medium and large firms.



      Dresses in addition to DIY

      • Clothing sales showed signs of recovery in early June, though spending remained 25% below year-earlier levels. The likely catalyst was the reopening of physical stores in parts of Canada, which allowed people to try things on before buying.
      • Household spending at construction stores remained strong, as Canadians staying close to home kept checking renovation projects off their to-do lists.


      Tentatively venturing out

      • Restaurant and dining spending climbed as restaurants opened at lower capacity in parts of Canada. Spending was down a third from last year, but far off lockdown lows (-68%).
      • Vehicle-related spending continued to climb amid easing restrictions, and was down just 13% in early June. Parking, transit, and travel spending started to pick up from very low levels.
      • Entertainment spending stabilized after growing notably through May as golf courses reopened.




      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      1Reflects fully anonymized credit and debit card spending.

      June 1, 2020

      This is the fourth report in our series examining RBC’s cardholder data1.

      As lockdown shock wears off, Canadians are opening their wallets wider and varying their buying. While spending remains down 13% from this time last year, that’s a marked improvement from late March, when it was down 37% from a year earlier.

      • As Canadian provinces take steps to reopen their economies, consumers have begun spending more on the discretionary items they shunned during the early phase of the pandemic.
      • Entertainment and art spending has benefited most from easing restrictions.
      • Spending on dining out continues to recover from lows, as restaurants adapt to take-out and other delivery models.
      • Formerly slow spending at merchants selling apparel, gifts & jewelry picked up steam in early May; Canadians spent more at clothing stores in particular.



      Home and driveway remain in focus

      • Spending at merchants selling household goods remains strong, reflecting spending at DIY construction stores, and on appliances and furniture.
      • Canadians began to drive more through early May, and card spending on auto expenses continued to pick up.



      Hitting the links, not the 19th hole

      • In mid-May, spending at entertainment and art merchants was down 37% from a year earlier, compared with a 58% drop in late April.
      • Golfers dusted off their putters as golf courses opened up around the country. Those who prefer playing inside continued to spend on online and console gaming.


      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the same period one year ago. To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      1Reflects fully anonymized credit and debit card spending.

      May 19, 2020

      This is the third report in our series examining RBC’s cardholder data1.

      To understand underlying trends, we examined spending differences between small businesses and personal credit cardholders.

      • Monthly spending in April was down nearly 30%, worse than the monthly read for March, reflecting that COVID-19 impacted activity over all of April versus only part of March.
      • At the end of April, consumer spending had rebounded somewhat from levels early in the crisis, but remained well below pre-pandemic levels.
      • Automotive spending paid for by card (e.g., maintenance, gas) seemed to have turned the corner, household construction was still strong, and spending on household goods was higher than before the crisis.
      • Discretionary spending had stabilized, albeit at low levels. Spending on restaurants and entertainment was down 50% from before the crisis.



      Businesses try to keep the lights on

      • Small business spending on essentials held up better than that of households, as firms cut discretionary spending.
      • Small business spending on software held to pre-COVID trends, while households spent significantly more kitting out home offices.
      • Businesses slashed dining and entertainment expenses, but kept their vehicles running more, cutting gas, automotive and parking expenses less than households.
      • Small businesses avoided cutting telecom spending (while households streamed more content) and trimmed utilities as little as possible.




       

      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the weekly average spending in the first 11 weeks of 2020 (i.e., prior to significant social distancing measures). To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      1Reflects fully anonymized credit and debit card spending.

      May 4, 2020

      This is the second report in our series examining RBC’s cardholder data1.

      • Consumer spending was still hurting in late April, down 17% from pre-crisis levels but firmer than ~30% in late March.
      • Spending only rose significantly in a few categories, like household construction, suggesting people used at-home time to complete projects, or bought scarce goods wherever they could find them.
      • The concentration of spending and modest changes elsewhere make us wonder whether these green shoots signal braver consumers, or if spending will fall back down soon. Fresh data for the rest of April, due in a few weeks, will complete the picture.


      Tiles, not turtlenecks

      • Spending on household goods and services climbed to pre-crisis levels, driven by spending at construction material, appliance, and furniture stores.
      • Software spending remained strong, while discretionary goods like clothing only increased slightly.


      Driving, not departures

      • Automotive and gas expenditures rose, likely reflecting gas prices that recovered from crisis lows.
      • Local and international travel spending remain down more than 80%.


      On demand, not on display

      • Canadians continued to seek at-home entertainment, spending strongly at merchants selling books, music and other goods, and on services like cable and streaming.
      • Spending at movie theatres and art galleries was decimated by mandatory closures; some other entertainment and art merchants saw an uptick in the week of April 21 likely reflecting digital subscriptions.


      Delivery, not dinner out

      • Spending on groceries remained robust as most Canadians dine in.
      • Restaurant spending remains down more than 50%, but ticked up recently as consumers started using take-out and delivery services.


      Read report PDF

      Download


      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the weekly average spending in the first 11 weeks of 2020 (i.e., prior to significant social distancing measures). To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      1Reflects fully anonymized credit and debit card spending.

      April 16, 2020

      Note: In order to provide the most accurate and robust insights, the methodology for the COVID Consumer Spending Tracker was recently updated to reflect delays between when transactions occur and when they are recorded in our database. To ensure archived versions of the Tracker are comparable with future versions, we have updated the data below. The key conclusions remain unchanged, though some estimates reflect new data.

      It’s not often a Canadian prime minister abruptly upends consumption patterns. Justin Trudeau appears to have inadvertently done that when he went into self-isolation on March 12 after his spouse was diagnosed with COVID-19. That news, along with a 2,350-point plunge in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, served as a one-two gut punch to Canadian consumers struggling to absorb a spike in pandemic-related developments.

      Given the lag in the release of official Canadian retail sales figures, we’ve used RBC’s proprietary spending data1 to provide a snapshot of how the COVID-19 pandemic has altered Canadian consumption. We believe RBC’s broad Canadian client base serves as a proxy for national consumption. This is the first report in our series examining spending data up to March 31.



      Highlights:

      • March 12 will go down in the record books as a pivotal day for Canadian retail spending.
      • Canadians spent 13% more on March 12 than the same day a year earlier, mainly on groceries.
      • Ottawa’s March 16 announcement that it would close borders to most non-citizens dealt big blows to dining and transportation spending.
      • Ontarians and Quebecers increased their shopping by close to half on the day business closures were announced.
      • Card spending fell ~40% in week ended March 31 versus the same period last year.


      Baking, not bistros

      • Grocery spending increased 80% in the week ending March 17th as Trudeau began self-isolating, and stayed notably elevated for two weeks.
      • While grocery shopping patterns subsequently normalized, the slowdown in restaurant spending persisted despite takeout/home delivery options.


      Software, not streetwear

      • Software and data services spending held up better than other discretionary categories, as Canadians equipped themselves to work from home.
      • Canadians spent 81% less on apparel, gifts, and jewelry in the week ended March 31.
      • After a brief spike in shopping at big box stores, department store sales were down 21% versus a year earlier.


      Streaming, not screenings

      • Spending at movie theatres and art galleries had already slowed ahead of social-distancing measures.
      • Spending on books and music (including streaming and online services) has increased slightly.



      ‡ Methodology

      RBC’s consumer spending tracking report uses RBC Data & Analytics’ proprietary database of anonymized card transactions by Canadian clients. The data are an accounting of merchant transactions that are divided into various spending categories covering tens of millions of weekly card transactions worth billions of dollars each week. Transactions, both in person and online, are classified into 11 broad spending groups: Dining, Education, Finances, Groceries, Health, Household, Shopping, Transport, Travel, Utilities, and Other. Within each group, the data are further classified: for example, shopping covers merchants classified as clothing stores, hobby shops, electronics stores, and jewellers, among others.

      We examined changes in the value of all transactions in these areas for 7-day periods starting January 1st, comparing spending to the amount recorded over the same seven days in 2019. We excluded purely financial items (e.g., cash advances, insurance premiums, currency exchanges, fines). To examine the impact of important events, we looked at how spending changed on specific days, both on a daily basis and on an annualized basis relative to that same weekday a year ago.

      Protecting your privacy and safeguarding your personal information is a cornerstone of our organizational ethics and values and will always be one of our highest priorities. The underlying data for this analysis was aggregated based on transaction date, region and merchant category, and cannot be used to identify any individual client or merchant. For additional information please visit www.rbc.com/privacy.

      1Reflects fully anonymized credit and debit card spending.

This article is intended as general information only and is not to be relied upon as constituting legal, financial or other professional advice. A professional advisor should be consulted regarding your specific situation. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of publication and are subject to change. No endorsement of any third parties or their advice, opinions, information, products or services is expressly given or implied by Royal Bank of Canada or any of its affiliates.

Share

Get the latest forecasts and analysis from RBC Economics
Subscribe Now

Topics