Farmers on both sides of the border are stressing over two critical minerals that are vital for continental food security: potash and phosphate. The two countries’ co-dependence on these two minerals, which are critical and non-substitutable fertilizer ingredients, also offer a peek into the integrated nature of the two economies.

Canada sourced 44% of its phosphate imports from the U.S. in 2024, following near total dependence in 2022 and 2023, when it sourced more than 95% of its imports from American mines, mostly in Florida. Phosphates, which make up roughly a quarter of Canadian fertilizer use, are essential nutrients to boost plant growth and crop yields.

Canada depends heavily on U.S. phosphate fertilizer imports

Canada phosphate fertilizer imports by country (2019-2024, % of total)

Source: Innovation, Science, and Economic Development Canada; RBC Thought Leadership

Meanwhile, the U.S. has a critical deficit of potash, a plant booster that expands crop yield and builds disease resistance. The U.S. typically imports roughly over 80% of its potash from Canadian producers, mostly in Saskatchewan, who have raised their market share since sanctions on major producer Belarus ramped up in 2022 for its support of Russia in the war against Ukraine. In 2024, the U.S. shipped in 83% of its total potassic fertilizer imports from Canada, valued at $4.1 billion compared to 76%, or $3.7 billion, in 2021. Potassic fertilizer makes up 23% of fertilizer end-use in the U.S.

Canada is the dominant source of U.S. potassic fertilizer imports

U.S. potassic fertilizer imports by country, % of total

US Census Bureau; RBC Thought Leadership

With the U.S. looking to squeeze Canada on trade, North American farmers worry that agricultural products, including phosphate and potassic fertilizers, may catch the eye of Washington and Ottawa as they target each other’s areas of vulnerabilities.

With limited prospects of securing sizeable amounts of fertilizer supplies from other sources, at least in the short-term, the continent’s farmers are watching for the following:

Higher costs, lower margins: Already reeling from lower grain prices, Canadian and U.S. farmers are bracing for higher fertilizer bills if the American and Canadian governments come for phosphates and potassium in an escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs. A report by ICIS, which tracks commodities, notes farmers are split whether fertilizers will be hit by the full 25% tariffs or lower, if they come into force at all. There’s also a strong chance that the influential agricultural industries in both countries could secure exemptions.

There are few alternatives: Following Chinese export controls on phosphate in 2022, Canada increased its reliance on the U.S., although we began sourcing phosphate imports from Egypt in 2024. With China is unlikely to resume exports of phosphorus nutrients anytime soon, expect the global market to scramble for supplies.

Raising Canadian phosphate production won’t be easy—or quick: Some phosphate mines are being developed in Quebec, but long construction timelines mean Canada is unlikely to reduce its U.S. dependence any time soon. Morocco, the “Saudi Arabia of phosphate” with reserves of 5.7 billion tonnes, could be one option. But with low inventory levels in North America, and rising global demand for food amid shrinking arable land, Canada will face stiff competition from other end-users.

Trade tensions present an opportunity for Canadian potash: Canada produces nearly a third of the world’s potash—followed by Russia (19%) and Belarus (15%)—and boasts a strong network of 11 producing potash mines and 8 projects in development. Phase 1 of mining conglomerate BHP Group’s Jansen mine is half complete, and is expected to begin production in late 2026, with capacity ramping up to 4.15 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) within two years—raising Canadian production by an estimated 28%. There is also scope to expand existing Canadian mines by an estimated 4.6 mtpa, and dominate the global potash space.

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