Early signs of easing in U.S. inflation in October
- Surge in home rent prices close to peak, and ex-shelter inflation showing signs of slowing
- Supply chains returning back closer to pre-pandemic conditions
- Elevated wage growth and broad inflation pressure mean the Fed will continue to hike interest rates for now
See our Canadian Inflation Watch here.
- But higher rent prices increasingly driver of monthly price growth
- Consumer demand for goods continues to moderate but remains elevated for services
- Price pressures still too high and broad-based to prevent further Fed rate hikes
- Upcoming recession to further cool pressure in 2023; Inflation expectations still dialing lower
- Inflation expectations might also have peaked but remain elevated
- Services products are taking over as main inflation driver in the U.S.
- Still broad-based price pressure demands more rate hikes to cool
- Lower gasoline prices offset higher rents to push the headline inflation reading lower
- Global supply chain pressures have continued to ease
- Domestic demand for goods also slowing as inflation bites harder into real spending power
- Inflation pressure still too high and broad; the Fed expected to continue to hike rates
- CPI reading still rose in June on higher energy prices, but may be close to peaking
- Price pressures still very broad, but showing signs of plateauing as global supply chain disruptions ease and key commodity prices fall
- Rising rent costs to put a floor under core CPI readings, and underlying inflation trends still too strong to delay Fed rate hikes
- U.S. inflation growth trended higher in May, up 8.6% year-over-year
- Pressures are still extremely broad-based, with prices for over half of all items in the CPI basket growing faster than 4% annually compared to pre-pandemic levels.
- Goods price growth still strong while shipping costs are cooling
- Shorter-term inflation expectations are soaring higher; longer-term expectations more moderate but also trending up
- Headline price growth eased in April as gasoline and used car prices edged lower (at extremely elevated levels).
- Price pressure still broad; more supply chain headwinds from Chinese lockdowns and Ukraine war.
- Wage growth accelerating, consumers’ inflation expectations continued to rise.
- March CPI reading pushed higher by invasion led surge in gas prices.
- Commodity prices have partially reversed gains but growth in rent prices are picking up.
- Tight labour market conditions means higher wages, especially for non-managerial roles.
- Still around 80% of the consumer basket (excluding shelter) was growing at above target rate in February.
- 5-year inflation expectations breach 3% on surging oil prices after Russian invaded Ukraine.
- Food and energy to lead global inflation as commodity prices soar.
- The 7.5% year-over-year price growth still disproportionately influenced by vehicle prices and weak year-ago comparable prices, but price pressures are broadening
- Housing costs running at above pre-pandemic rates, and close to 80% of the consumer basket prices rising faster than 2% per-year from pre-pandemic levels
- Headline inflation rates are expected to plateau in coming months as pandemic distortions fade, but strong demand will keep a floor under broader price pressures
- Near-term inflation driven by higher home rent and vehicle prices.
- Pressure is still broadening, as majority of consumer basket is seeing +2% growth in inflation.
- Tentative signs of supply chain disruptions easing.
- Inflation pressure still broadening across CPI basket.
- Omicron worries jolted energy prices and inflation expectations.
- Used car prices continued to rally, wages also grew.
- New vehicle prices and base-effects still boosting year-over-year price growth.
- Shelter and food costs also rising more quickly.
- High input costs and supply chain disruptions to keep upward pressure on prices near-term.
October 13, 2021
- US core (ex-food & energy) price growth back above pre-COVID trends, supported by reopening demand.
- Excluding vehicles, month over month increase in prices still stable.
- Rising energy prices, input costs and wages adding to upside concerns.
September 14, 2021
- Vehicle prices easing slightly from exceptionally high levels.
- Month-over-month price growth slower from spring/summer surge.
- Stronger services demand, persistent supply-chain pressures, to put a floor under near-term price growth.
August 10, 2021
- Transport related prices still elevated but showed early signs of easing
- Longer run inflation expectations still steady among consumers
- Wage expectations rising higher for lower skill occupations, as demand rebounds
See our Canadian Inflation Watch here.
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