U.S. inflation picked up speed in August on surging energy prices

  • Elevated oil prices pushed U.S. energy prices higher.
  • But broader inflation pressures have continued to ease south of the border.
  • Rent, one of the main contributors to inflation, has slowed on a month-over-month basis.
  • And excluding rent, the U.S. Fed’s preferred ‘core’ inflation measure still-below pre-pandemic trend levels.
  • Wage growth remains stubborn at 5% to 6%, despite an easing in overall price pressures.

See our Canadian Inflation Watch here.

  • Broader price pressures are still trending down despite an energy-driven uptick in annual headline inflation in July.
  • Month-over-month growth in core services ex-shelter (a preferred Fed measure) ticked higher but still at low level, and the breadth of inflation narrowed significantly.
  • Consumers expect slower price growth over the next 5 years, but their short-term inflation expectations remain unchanged.
  • Real wages are still growing—though they continue to lag inflation growth.

  • Deceleration in food and energy prices drove U.S. headline inflation lower.
  • Core services excluding rent (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) also improved, and breadth of inflationary pressure continued to narrow, but still above pre-pandemic level.
  • Consumer demand for goods remained steady, while manufacturing prices fell below pre-pandemic levels due to easing in supply chain pressures.
  • Despite persistent slowing in price growth, wage growth remained stubborn.

  • CPI growth slowed sharply in May as gasoline prices moved lower from a year ago and food price growth slowed
  • Core (ex-food & energy) prices are still growing too fast, but the breadth of inflation pressures continues to ease
  • Rent and food price inflation appear to be past their peaks
  • Fed’s current preferred inflation gauge (core services excluding shelter) continued to edge lower

  • Headline and core (ex-food & energy) inflation both edged lower in April.
  • Home rents are still driving the majority of core price growth—but has continued to slow gradually as leases are renewed at current market rates.
  • The Fed’s preferred core services measure (which excludes shelter) ticked lower and the breadth of inflation show more signs of improvement.

  • Headline inflation readings were lower again, and the range of goods and services impacted by higher-than-normal inflation narrowed
  • Slowing demand and easing supply chain conditions pushed goods inflation lower, although services CPI (ex-rent and energy) was still firm
  • Consumers’ inflation expectations (for the next year) continued to move lower
  • Grocery price growth slowed significantly from a year ago, and posed its first decline since August 2021

  • Inflation pressures remain elevated but are slowing and narrowing
  • Commodity prices are back below year-ago levels as global inflationary pressures ease
  • Exceptionally tight labour markets could reignite domestic inflation drivers, although wage growth has also been slowing
  • Consumer inflation expectations have been edging lower

  • Inflation pressures showing further signs of easing and breadth of pressure narrowing
  • Rising rents increasingly the main driver of price pressure, but will soften in year ahead with current market rates slowing
  • Consumer demand flattening at elevated levels but expected to fall, as interest rate increases to-date bite more into households’ spending power

  • Surge in home rent prices close to peak, and ex-shelter inflation showing signs of slowing
  • Supply chains returning back closer to pre-pandemic conditions
  • Elevated wage growth and broad inflation pressure mean the Fed will continue to hike interest rates for now

  • But higher rent prices increasingly driver of monthly price growth
  • Consumer demand for goods continues to moderate but remains elevated for services
  • Price pressures still too high and broad-based to prevent further Fed rate hikes
  • Upcoming recession to further cool pressure in 2023; Inflation expectations still dialing lower

  • Inflation expectations might also have peaked but remain elevated
  • Services products are taking over as main inflation driver in the U.S.
  • Still broad-based price pressure demands more rate hikes to cool

  • Lower gasoline prices offset higher rents to push the headline inflation reading lower
  • Global supply chain pressures have continued to ease
  • Domestic demand for goods also slowing as inflation bites harder into real spending power
  • Inflation pressure still too high and broad; the Fed expected to continue to hike rates

  • CPI reading still rose in June on higher energy prices, but may be close to peaking
  • Price pressures still very broad, but showing signs of plateauing as global supply chain disruptions ease and key commodity prices fall
  • Rising rent costs to put a floor under core CPI readings, and underlying inflation trends still too strong to delay Fed rate hikes

  • U.S. inflation growth trended higher in May, up 8.6% year-over-year
  • Pressures are still extremely broad-based, with prices for over half of all items in the CPI basket growing faster than 4% annually compared to pre-pandemic levels.
  • Goods price growth still strong while shipping costs are cooling
  • Shorter-term inflation expectations are soaring higher; longer-term expectations more moderate but also trending up

  • Headline price growth eased in April as gasoline and used car prices edged lower (at extremely elevated levels).
  • Price pressure still broad; more supply chain headwinds from Chinese lockdowns and Ukraine war.
  • Wage growth accelerating, consumers’ inflation expectations continued to rise.

  • March CPI reading pushed higher by invasion led surge in gas prices.
  • Commodity prices have partially reversed gains but growth in rent prices are picking up.
  • Tight labour market conditions means higher wages, especially for non-managerial roles.

  • Still around 80% of the consumer basket (excluding shelter) was growing at above target rate in February.
  • 5-year inflation expectations breach 3% on surging oil prices after Russian invaded Ukraine.
  • Food and energy to lead global inflation as commodity prices soar.

  • The 7.5% year-over-year price growth still disproportionately influenced by vehicle prices and weak year-ago comparable prices, but price pressures are broadening
  • Housing costs running at above pre-pandemic rates, and close to 80% of the consumer basket prices rising faster than 2% per-year from pre-pandemic levels
  • Headline inflation rates are expected to plateau in coming months as pandemic distortions fade, but strong demand will keep a floor under broader price pressures

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  • Near-term inflation driven by higher home rent and vehicle prices.
  • Pressure is still broadening, as majority of consumer basket is seeing +2% growth in inflation.
  • Tentative signs of supply chain disruptions easing.

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  • Inflation pressure still broadening across CPI basket.
  • Omicron worries jolted energy prices and inflation expectations.
  • Used car prices continued to rally, wages also grew.

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  • New vehicle prices and base-effects still boosting year-over-year price growth.
  • Shelter and food costs also rising more quickly.
  • High input costs and supply chain disruptions to keep upward pressure on prices near-term.

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October 13, 2021

  • US core (ex-food & energy) price growth back above pre-COVID trends, supported by reopening demand.
  • Excluding vehicles, month over month increase in prices still stable.
  • Rising energy prices, input costs and wages adding to upside concerns.

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September 14, 2021

  • Vehicle prices easing slightly from exceptionally high levels.
  • Month-over-month price growth slower from spring/summer surge.
  • Stronger services demand, persistent supply-chain pressures, to put a floor under near-term price growth.

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August 10, 2021

  • Transport related prices still elevated but showed early signs of easing
  • Longer run inflation expectations still steady among consumers
  • Wage expectations rising higher for lower skill occupations, as demand rebounds

See our Canadian Inflation Watch here.

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