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RBC Economics

Latest Insight

Don't stop me now—rate cuts to multiply from BoC, ECB and BoE

Forward Guidance

Inflation expected to keep dropping below 2% in Canada

Economic Analysis

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Business survey gives green light for larger rate cuts

October 11, 2024

Details suggest that demand is still weak and businesses continue to expect inflation pressures will further unwind in Canada.

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Fed cuts 50 basis points with more to come

September 18, 2024

The Fed took pains to reinforce the view that this initial 50 basis point cut is the beginning of a "recalibration" cycle.

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Featured Insights

Canada Labour Market

October 11, 2024

Employment jumped by 47,000 in September and the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged lower for the first time since January to 6.5%.

RBC U.S. Inflation Watch

October 10, 2024

The small upward surprise in September price growth isn’t likely enough to prevent the Fed from following through with additional interest rate cuts, but further lowers odds of another 50 bps reduction.

US Labour Market

October 4, 2024

The strong report saw market odds drop for another 50 basis point rate cut in the Fed’s next meeting in November.

Podcast: The 10-Minute Take

October 3, 2024

Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss why 2% in Canada is different from before and what this means for the economy going forward.

Canadian GDP Update

September 27, 2024

The 0.2% increase in July GDP was stronger than the advance estimate a month ago, but still leaves Q3 growth tracking below the Bank of Canada’s forecast.

Three reasons why 2024’s 2% inflation isn’t 2019’s 2%

September 25, 2024

Canada is back at 2% inflation, but it’s too soon to pop the champagne. What’s driving prices now looks very different from before the pandemic.

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Canadian Housing

Buying a home gets a tad more affordable as rates drop

October 8, 2024

Mortgage payments, property taxes and utilities fell as a share of median household income in Canada to 59.5% from 61% in Q1.

New listings shoot higher in most major markets

October 7, 2024

The influx is continuing to build inventory—which is still hovering near the equivalent of four months of supply.

Canada’s housing market still in a wait-and-see mode

September 16, 2024

Interest rates may be coming down, but most Canadian homebuyers remain unconvinced that now is the right time to make a purchase.

Rate cuts have yet to pull Canada’s housing markets out of their slump

September 6, 2024

Early reports on August home sales showed only small increases in most markets including Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto and Montreal.

Housing market activity static again after June bump

August 15, 2024

Resales pulled back modestly—dipping 0.7% between June and July at the national level—partially offsetting a 3.5% advance in June.

Housing markets look for deeper rate cuts to ramp up activity

August 8, 2024

After a small uptick between May and June, home resales fell again in some markets including Vancouver, Calgary and Toronto.

See all Canadian Housing Articles

Economy and Markets

Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE

October 10, 2024

The stronger-than-expected September U.S. payroll report left the economy on track for the historically elusive ‘soft landing’ and reduced urgency for the Fed to repeat a 50-basis point rate cut.

Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad

September 18, 2024

The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.

Ease on down the road – Fed shifting gears as inflation slows

September 11, 2024

Softening U.S. labour markets and lower inflation leave the Fed on track to kick of an easing cycle starting in September, one of the last major central banks to do so.

Stayin’ Alive: The U.S. labour market is weakening, not faltering

August 14, 2024

More central banks are committing to cutting interest rates from elevated levels.

At Last: U.S. economy is showing signs of softening

July 11, 2024

We now expect the Fed to cut rates in September—earlier than our prior December assumption—with a gradual easing cycle to follow.

Let me see you get low: central banks kick off rate cutting cycle

June 13, 2024

Bank of Canada and ECB both kickstarted the easing cycles in June but neither is expected to race rates to the bottom.

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Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis

Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad

September 18, 2024

The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.

Rate cuts won’t spur immediate rebound in Canada’s economy

June 12, 2024

The global economic growth backdrop has shown signs of improvement, but Canada’s economy continues to underperform.

Federal Budget 2024: Lack of spending restraint offset by revenue surprise and tax hikes

April 16, 2024

Budget 2024 showed a slightly worse bottom line throughout the federal government’s fiscal plan compared to previous estimates but kept...

Manitoba Budget 2024: Deficit cut in half but debt burden continues to grow

April 3, 2024

The provincial debt burden is expected to be the heaviest on record, reaching 39.1% of gross domestic product by fiscal 2025-26.

Ontario Budget 2024: Balancing priorities, not the books

March 27, 2024

Province anticipates $9.8 billion deficit, scrapping last year’s plan for a surplus ($200 million) in 2024-25. Return to balance has...

Newfoundland and Labrador Budget 2024: Higher spending leads to another year of deficits

March 22, 2024

Newfoundland and Labrador projects a $152 million budget shortfall in 2024-25, scrapping surplus plans for the upcoming fiscal year. Revenues...

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Forecasts & Data

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