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Latest Insight

Canada’s unemployment rate rose again in November

Forward Guidance

Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again by 50 basis points

Economic Analysis

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Future Fed policy decisions still data dependent after 25 bp cut

November 7, 2024

The economic backdrop has been too resilient, and inflation too sticky, to justify a repeat of the initial 50 basis point cut in September.

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Business survey gives green light for larger rate cuts

October 11, 2024

Details suggest that demand is still weak and businesses continue to expect inflation pressures will further unwind in Canada.

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Featured Insights

U.S. Labour Market

December 6, 2024

November’s U.S. jobs data was largely as expected, but still soft enough to argue for additional interest rate cuts by the U.S. Fed.

Canada Labour Market

December 6, 2024

Employment continued to rise in November (+51k) but - consistent with broader trends over the last couple of years - not quickly enough to keep up with a growing labour force.

Canadian GDP Update

November 29, 2024

Canadian employment continued to rise in November by 51,000 jobs, but not quickly enough to keep up with a growing labour force— a trend seen in the past two years.

Podcast: The 10-Minute Take

November 28, 2024

Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dive into the growing government deficit in the U.S., and its ripple effects on Canada.

Proof Point: Are falling rents in Canada temporary relief or a new trend

November 27, 2024

The asking rent for units across Canada fell for the first time in three years in October with big declines seen in the largest and most expensive cities.

Quebec maintains large deficit, uses half its contingency reserve for spending

November 22, 2024

Quebec’s 2024 economic update looks uneventful on the surface, but more is happening underneath with larger federal transfers and new spending.

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Canadian Housing

Canada’s housing market ends the fall season on an upswing

December 5, 2024

Most major areas reported rises in resales and prices from October, adding to gains realized the previous month.

Canadian home sales jump in October but strong pace will be hard to sustain

November 15, 2024

Canadian homebuyers did more than dip their toes in the market in October—they were on a mission to make deals happen.

Are October’s sales gains an inflection point for Canada’s housing markets?

November 7, 2024

Interest rate cuts are finally boosting housing market activity in a visible way across Canada.

Slowly but surely—Canada’s homebuyers begin to respond to rate cuts

October 15, 2024

Lower interest rates got the wheels turning a little faster in September for homebuyers.

Buying a home gets a tad more affordable as rates drop

October 8, 2024

Mortgage payments, property taxes and utilities fell as a share of median household income in Canada to 59.5% from 61% in Q1.

New listings shoot higher in most major markets

October 7, 2024

The influx is continuing to build inventory—which is still hovering near the equivalent of four months of supply.

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Economy and Markets

Running up that bill — U.S. growth gains, debt pains

November 13, 2024

U.S. government spending will continue to add to growth, but it may come at the cost of higher inflation, interest rates, and less savings for the future.

Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE

October 10, 2024

The stronger-than-expected September U.S. payroll report left the economy on track for the historically elusive ‘soft landing’ and reduced urgency for the Fed to repeat a 50-basis point rate cut.

Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad

September 18, 2024

The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.

Ease on down the road – Fed shifting gears as inflation slows

September 11, 2024

Softening U.S. labour markets and lower inflation leave the Fed on track to kick of an easing cycle starting in September, one of the last major central banks to do so.

Stayin’ Alive: The U.S. labour market is weakening, not faltering

August 14, 2024

More central banks are committing to cutting interest rates from elevated levels.

At Last: U.S. economy is showing signs of softening

July 11, 2024

We now expect the Fed to cut rates in September—earlier than our prior December assumption—with a gradual easing cycle to follow.

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Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis

Smart money: Focused fiscal policy needed more than ever

December 3, 2024

Much has changed since the spring of Budget 2024. The feds’ lower immigration targets will hamper the growth engine the Canadian economy

Quebec maintains large deficit, uses half its contingency reserve for spending

November 22, 2024

Quebec’s 2024 economic update looks uneventful on the surface, but more is happening underneath with larger federal transfers and new spending.

Ontario’s economic outlook brightens but immigration targets increase risks

October 31, 2024

Recent changes to the federal immigration plan weren’t accounted for in the underlying economic assumptions, adding downside risk to the fiscal plan.

Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad

September 18, 2024

The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.

Rate cuts won’t spur immediate rebound in Canada’s economy

June 12, 2024

The global economic growth backdrop has shown signs of improvement, but Canada’s economy continues to underperform.

Federal Budget 2024: Lack of spending restraint offset by revenue surprise and tax hikes

April 16, 2024

Budget 2024 showed a slightly worse bottom line throughout the federal government’s fiscal plan compared to previous estimates but kept...

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Forecasts & Data

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