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Latest Insight

Canadians ramped up holiday spending right after federal tax holiday

Forward Guidance

Canadian inflation and Business Outlook Survey to reveal more economic softening

Economic Analysis

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Fed expects less rate cuts in 2025 and 2026

December 18, 2024

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected, but also signalled a more gradual easing cycle going forward alongside upwardly revised growth and inflation forecasts.

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Future Fed policy decisions still data dependent after 25 bps cut

November 7, 2024

The economic backdrop has been too resilient, and inflation too sticky, to justify a repeat of the initial 50 basis point cut in September.

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Featured Insights

Podcast: The 10-Minute Take

January 16, 2025

Season three of the 10-Minute Take is here, and we’re kicking things off with a deep dive into a hot topic—the Canadian dollar’s dramatic dip against the U.S. dollar, to levels unseen since the pandemic.

RBC Consumer Spending Tracker

January 16, 2025

December marked a sharp reversal to November’s soft start to the holiday shopping season. While Black Friday shopping was softer this year than last, total spending over the holidays was slightly above year-ago levels.

RBC U.S. Inflation Watch

January 15, 2025

The tick lower in core price growth in December follows a string of upside surprises and shouldn't be enough to justify another Federal Reserve rate cut later this month.

Canada Labour Market

January 10, 2025

The December labour market numbers are clearly firmer than expected, with headlines and details broadly better than feared. Still, the data is notoriously volatile, and the unemployment rate is still up almost a percentage point from a year ago.

U.S. Labour Market

January 10, 2025

The U.S. jobs market continue to show strength towards the end of 2024 with job openings rising consecutively in October and November.

Navigating 2025: Looking better and unsettling all at once

January 7, 2025

Here are the key economic themes that will shape how businesses and governments navigate opportunities and risks on the horizon, along with their implications for Canadians.

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Canadian Housing

Canada’s housing market recovery hits a bump but expected stay on track

January 15, 2025

Interest rate cuts in Canada set the housing market on a recovery path in 2024, but there have been bumps along the way as demonstrated by activity in December.

Canada’s housing markets see a mixed finish to 2024

January 8, 2025

The fall’s strong market rally lost a lot of steam in some of Canada’s major housing markets as resale transactions fell markedly in Calgary and Toronto between November and December, according to local real estate boards.

Homebuyers get some affordability relief but strains endure

December 20, 2024

The deep housing market slump got the ball rolling last year with a modest depreciation of property values tamping down homeownership costs.

More supply and cooling demand ease Canadian rental market pressures in 2024

December 19, 2024

Canada’s rental market eased slightly in 2024 after a year of unprecedented tightness, but affordability challenges persist.

Lower rates stoked Canada’s housing market momentum this fall

December 16, 2024

Canada’s housing market action got hotter as the temperature cooled this fall.

Canada’s housing market ends the fall season on an upswing

December 5, 2024

Most major areas reported rises in resales and prices from October, adding to gains realized the previous month.

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Economy and Markets

Take it easy, higher Fed terminal and weaker loonie shouldn’t make the BoC queasy

January 10, 2025

With the exceptional run of U.S. data continuing, we no longer expect any further rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.

Canada’s growth prospects brighten in 2025 but not without challenges

December 12, 2024

Canada’s economic growth challenges are expected to ease as the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates—but not right away, and longer-run challenges remain.

Tangled up in trade: The steep cost of closing doors

December 11, 2024

International trade risks are back in focus as the incoming Trump administration prepares to take office—but for now, economic data is tracking broadly in line with prior expectations.

Running up that bill — U.S. growth gains, debt pains

November 13, 2024

U.S. government spending will continue to add to growth, but it may come at the cost of higher inflation, interest rates, and less savings for the future.

Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE

October 10, 2024

The stronger-than-expected September U.S. payroll report left the economy on track for the historically elusive ‘soft landing’ and reduced urgency for the Fed to repeat a 50-basis point rate cut.

Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad

September 18, 2024

The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.

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Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis

Fall Economic Statement 2024: Canada boosts investment appeal and the deficit deepens

December 16, 2024

Lower revenues and new spending measures have resulted in deeper deficits over the course of the fiscal plan—including a whopping $22 billion downward revision to the 2023-24 bottom line to $61.9 billion.

Canada’s growth prospects brighten in 2025 but not without challenges

December 12, 2024

Canada’s economic growth challenges are expected to ease as the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates—but not right away, and longer-run challenges remain.

Smart money: Focused fiscal policy needed more than ever

December 3, 2024

Much has changed since the spring of Budget 2024. The feds’ lower immigration targets will hamper the growth engine the Canadian economy.

Quebec maintains large deficit, uses half its contingency reserve for spending

November 22, 2024

Quebec’s 2024 economic update looks uneventful on the surface, but more is happening underneath with larger federal transfers and new spending.

Ontario’s economic outlook brightens but immigration targets increase risks

October 31, 2024

Recent changes to the federal immigration plan weren’t accounted for in the underlying economic assumptions, adding downside risk to the fiscal plan.

Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad

September 18, 2024

The Canadian economy has continued to underperform global peers with declines in per-capita output in seven of the last eight quarters.

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Forecasts & Data

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