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RBC Economics

Latest Insight

Mood swing: Canadians spending closer to home as trade war weighs on travel

Forward Guidance

March data to give early clues about Canada’s economy under tariffs

Economic Analysis

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Trade war sours Canadian housing market sentiment and recovery

April 15, 2025

The trade war is derailing what was shaping up to be a solid recovery in Canada’s housing market.

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Improving housing affordability in Canada takes a backseat

March 31, 2025

Homeownership costs see a fourth straight drop in Canada, but the trade war is likely to loom large over the market near term.

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Featured Insights

Podcast: The 10-Minute Take

April 24, 2025

Are tariffs a game changer for growth and inflation? Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into how tariffs will tariffs influence inflation and GDP growth in the U.S. and Canada

RBC Consumer Spending Tracker

April 17, 2025

Canadians are pulling back on purchasing discretionary goods, although broader spending trends remained resilient in March compared to the dramatic pullback in consumer confidence measures.

Preparing for the downside: Could Canadian federal finances withstand a trade war?

April 16, 2025

As ongoing trade frictions threaten Canadian growth in 2025, monetary policy isn’t likely to be the first line of defense for the economy. Fiscal policy will be key as it is better able to provide timely, targeted, and temporary support.

Bank of Canada policy update

April 16, 2025

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate unchanged for the first time since commencing the easing cycle last June.

Slowing growth, higher prices: A deeper dive into our U.S. forecasts

April 15, 2025

As a follow to our U.S. forecast update, we answer six key questions we’ve received about the U.S. economy and how we’re thinking about the changes that we’ve made.

RBC Canadian Inflation Watch

April 15, 2025

March's headline inflation edged lower to 2.3% year-over-year from 2.6% in February, as cooling in gasoline and travel tours prices more than offset a bounce back in food prices.

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Canadian Housing

Trade war sours Canadian housing market sentiment and recovery

April 15, 2025

The trade war is derailing what was shaping up to be a solid recovery in Canada’s housing market.

Canada’s homebuyers wait out trade war fallout

April 7, 2025

The chills the U.S. trade war has sent through participants in the housing market are getting frostier.

Improving housing affordability in Canada takes a backseat

March 31, 2025

Homeownership costs see a fourth straight drop in Canada, but the trade war is likely to loom large over the market near term.

Canada’s housing market retreats amid trade war

March 17, 2025

The threat of U.S. tariffs has become top of mind for those considering buying or selling a home in Canada.

Trade turbulence shakes Canada’s housing market foundations

March 7, 2025

Any signs of market optimism that emerged in January (mostly from sellers) quickly vanished in February as concerns about the economic consequences of a trade war with the U.S. sent chills through participants.

Canadian buyers unfazed by sellers’ early jump into the housing market

February 18, 2025

New listings jumped 11% from December to January nationwide, the largest monthly increase in almost two years.

See all Canadian Housing Articles

Economy and Markets

Hard Times: Escalating tariffs threaten U.S. economic exceptionalism

April 10, 2025

U.S. trade policy continues to escalate with grievances extending to virtually all U.S. trade partners today from just a handful a month ago.

Canada’s macroeconomic outlook: U.S. trade risks are derailing a recovery

March 13, 2025

The threat of significant international trade disruptions is overshadowing what would have been a substantially improving Canadian economy.

It's a new dawn (day), and no one’s feeling good: Tariffs slash growth momentum in Canada and U.S.

March 12, 2025

Trade risks are set to wipe out early signs of economic recovery in Canada—we expect gross domestic product growth to slow and the unemployment rate to edge higher in coming quarters.

50 ways to leave your lover: Sizing the impact of a trade breakup

February 12, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from imposing blanket tariffs on Canada at the 11th hour last week, but trade risks are not going away.

Take it easy, higher Fed terminal and weaker loonie shouldn’t make the BoC queasy

January 10, 2025

With the exceptional run of U.S. data continuing, we no longer expect any further rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.

Canada’s growth prospects brighten in 2025 but not without challenges

December 12, 2024

Canada’s economic growth challenges are expected to ease as the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates—but not right away, and longer-run challenges remain.

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Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis

Prince Edward Island Budget 2025: Entering a period of deeper deficits

April 10, 2025

P.E.I. projects the largest deficit in province’s history at $184 million in 2025-26 with no plans to return to balance.

Newfoundland and Labrador Budget 2025: Balance delayed until 2026-27 amid record spending

April 9, 2025

Newfoundland and Labrador projects a $372 million shortfall in 2025-26, delaying plans to balance by a year.

Quebec Budget 2025: Record deficit and a long and conditional path to balance

March 25, 2025

Québec’s budgetary shortfall will deepen to a record $13.6 billion in 2025-26 following a marginally shallower deficit in 2024-25.

Manitoba Budget 2025: Path to balance narrows amid new spending plans

March 21, 2025

Government expects $794 million deficit in 2025-26 and maintains commitment to balance the budget by 2027-28.

Saskatchewan Budget 2025: Maintaining a surplus despite trade risk

March 20, 2025

Saskatchewan intends to maintain a small $12 million surplus in 2025-26 after a deeper than expected deficit of $660 million 2024-25.

New Brunswick Budget 2025: Shifting away from surplus

March 19, 2025

New Brunswick projects a $599 million deficit in 2025-26 following a $399 million shortfall in 2024-25, marking a shift from the recent streak of surpluses.

See all Provincial Outlooks & Fiscal Reports

Forecasts & Data

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