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Fall Economic Statement 2023: Federal government backloads new spending, maintains near-term bottom line

Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance for the week of December 4, 2023

Economic Updates

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U.S. unemployment edged lower in November

December 8, 2023

November saw a rebound in US labour market conditions after gradual softening in the earlier months. The unemployment rate dropped lower to 3.7%, after having drifted higher 3.9% in October.

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BoC remains on hold, emphasizing weakened economic backdrop

December 6, 2023

The option for more tightening was again retained, but the dovish undertone with the rest of the statement suggests that option is not expected to be exercised.

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Special Reports

The 10-Minute Take

December 7, 2023

What surprised economists in 2023? Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan provide a recap of key macro themes that played out this year and tell you what to look out for in the year ahead.

Proof Point: Why has U.S. consumer spending been so much more resilient than Canada's?

November 29, 2023

The U.S. economy has significantly outperformed Canada this year, largely fueled by soaring consumer spending that has yet to slow.

RBC Canadian Inflation Watch

November 21, 2023

RBC Economics provides an analysis of the key indicators on price trends in Canada.

RBC Consumer Spending Tracker

November 16, 2023

RBC Economics provides a snapshot and an analysis of Canadian consumer spending.

Proof Point: Closing Canada’s infrastructure gap could boost Indigenous output by up to 17%

November 15, 2023

It is well-known that Canada is one of the most educated countries in the world, with the second highest share of adults aged 25 to 34 with tertiary education

RBC U.S. Inflation Watch

November 14, 2023

RBC Economics provides a monthly analysis of the key indicators on price trends in the United States.

See all Special Reports

Canadian Housing

All quiet on most fronts in Canada’s housing markets

December 7, 2023

It’s been a tranquil fall season for Canada’s housing markets this year. Early results from local real estate boards confirmed the broad cooling that took hold late this summer persisted into November.

Ontario leads Canada’s housing market cooldown

November 15, 2023

Higher interest rates are increasingly cooling housing markets across the country. But there’s no region feeling it more than Ontario at this stage.

Fall market stuck in a low gear across Canada

November 6, 2023

High interest rates are exerting a growing toll on Canada’s housing markets. Early results from local real estate boards for...

Home prices edge lower in Canada

October 13, 2023

The fall season is shaping up to be a relatively quiet period for Canada’s housing market.

More sellers, fewer buyers take pressure off housing prices in Canada

October 5, 2023

Sellers are returning to the housing market. September was a case in point where new listings increased sequentially in all major markets.

Second quarter affordability gain too small to relieve tensions

September 28, 2023

The burden of home ownership costs got slightly lighter in the second quarter in Canada: RBC’s aggregate affordability measure for...

See all Canadian Housing Articles

Economy and Markets

Taking the long way home

October 11, 2023

Central banks are on pause as surging term bond yields tighten financial conditions further. Canadian population growth is complicating interpretation of macroeconomic data, but there are signs of softening under the surface.

Under Pressure – softening outlook keeping central banks at bay

November 9, 2023

Elevated policy rates and tight financial condition continue to slow consumer spending in Canada, the euro area and the UK

Letting it be - central banks hold the line as more clouds roll in

September 13, 2023

The global economic backdrop is darkening as growth slows in China while elevated interest rates weigh on Canada

Canada’s economic engine is gearing down

September 13, 2023

Headwinds from higher interest rates and a slowing global economy are building. Canadian GDP edged 0.2% lower in Q2 of...

Central banks hit "hopeful pause" on rate hikes

August 9, 2023

Robust economic data seemed to bring sunnier days in July. For the most part, global equity indices inched higher as recession fears eased.

Interest rates to stay higher for longer

July 12, 2023

Resilient economic growth and sticky inflation are pressuring central banks to push interest rates higher, even as headwinds from higher prices and debt payments build.

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Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis

Fall Economic Statement 2023: Federal government backloads new spending, maintains near-term bottom line

November 21, 2023

The federal government announces $20.8 billion in net new policy action over 6 years since Budget 2023 – 30% of which ($6.3 billion) will be allocated to housing affordability initiatives.

Quebec maintains path to balance despite weakening economic backdrop

November 8, 2023

Quebec’s bottom line over the fiscal planning horizon is unchanged from that set out in Budget 2023.

Ontario fall fiscal update strikes a more sombre tone

November 2, 2023

Ontario boosted its deficit projection from $1.3 billion to $5.6 billion this fiscal year despite expecting slightly stronger economic growth since Budget 2023.

Canada’s economic engine is gearing down

September 13, 2023

Headwinds from higher interest rates and a slowing global economy are building. Canadian GDP edged 0.2% lower in Q2 of...

Canada’s economy is beating expectations, but for how long?

June 8, 2023

In both Canada and the U.S., GDP continued to grow in Q1—and consumers kept spending. But the surge in interest rates will continue to take a toll.

Prince Edward Island Budget 2023: Planning for growth

May 26, 2023

P.E.I government projects a slight increase in its deficit to $98 million in FY 2023-24.

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Forecasts & Data

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