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An in-depth analysis of the key drivers of economic activity in Canada and the US including a discussion of global factors that will affect these near term forecasts. A forward-looking analysis of Canadian, U.S. and international financial market trends including interest rate and currency forecasts.
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Under Pressure – softening outlook keeping central banks at bay
November 9, 2023
Elevated policy rates and tight financial condition continue to slow consumer spending in Canada, the euro area and the UK
Macroeconomic Outlook
Canada’s economic engine is gearing down
September 13, 2023
Headwinds from higher interest rates and a slowing global economy are building. Canadian GDP edged 0.2% lower in Q2 of...
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Financial Markets
Taking the long way home Letting it be - central banks hold the line as more clouds roll in Central banks hit "hopeful pause" on rate hikes Interest rates to stay higher for longer Triangulating terminal: take two Crunch time The waiting is the hardest part New legs, or familiar lags? Know when to hold ’em Triangulating terminal
Past the peak Searching for the turning point Crossing the line(s) Front-loading can't guarantee a soft landing Flagging growth won't derail central bank rate hikes Shrinking runway for a soft landing Will tough-talking central banks follow through? End of an era Central banks playing catch-up Conflict in Europe brings more uncertainty, more inflation Moving on from pandemic stimulus Omicron won’t deter hawkish central banks
Central banks weigh inflation, new variant Central banks feeling the pressure Central banks shuffling toward the exit Economic recovery delayed but not derailed Navigating the Delta variant Central bank divergence re-emerging Economies and markets in wait-and-see mode Central banks on different wavelengths Vaccines, restrictions driving near-term divergence Inflation Prospects Prompt Bond Market Reset Economic Momentum 'Strained' in Early 2021 Rising COVID Cases Make for a Challenging Start to 2021
Vaccine Rollout Boosts 2021 Growth Prospects The Balancing Act: Containment vs. Recovery Second Wave Threatens Recovery Momentum Economic Check-up after a Very Long 6 Months Economic Recovery Underway, but Risks Abound Managing COVID Outbreaks Key for the Path to Economic Recovery After Unprecedented Declines, an Uneasy Recovery Begins After the Fall Record-breaking Declines Ahead March 6, 2020 February 7, 2020 January 10, 2020