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An in-depth analysis of the key drivers of economic activity in Canada and the US including a discussion of global factors that will affect these near term forecasts. A forward-looking analysis of Canadian, U.S. and international financial market trends including interest rate and currency forecasts.
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Hard Times: Escalating tariffs threaten U.S. economic exceptionalism
April 10, 2025
U.S. trade policy continues to escalate with grievances extending to virtually all U.S. trade partners today from just a handful a month ago.
Macroeconomic Outlook
Canada’s macroeconomic outlook: U.S. trade risks are derailing a recovery
March 13, 2025
The threat of significant international trade disruptions is overshadowing what would have been a substantially improving Canadian economy.
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Financial Markets
Tangled up in trade: The steep cost of closing doors Running up that bill — U.S. growth gains, debt pains Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE Ease on down the road – Fed shifting gears as inflation slows Stayin’ Alive: The U.S. labour market is weakening, not faltering At Last: U.S. economy is showing signs of softening Let me see you get low: central banks kick off rate cutting cycle It's hard to leave (higher rates) when you can't find the door (to lower inflation) BoC and the Fed, you gotta keep ‘em separated U.S. outperformance continues but no sunshine yet for the Canadian economy New rules Ordinary pain
Special edition - keeping an eye on Canada’s credit rating Under Pressure – softening outlook keeping central banks at bay Taking the long way home Letting it be - central banks hold the line as more clouds roll in Central banks hit "hopeful pause" on rate hikes Interest rates to stay higher for longer Triangulating terminal: take two Crunch time The waiting is the hardest part New legs, or familiar lags? Know when to hold ’em Triangulating terminal
Past the peak Searching for the turning point Crossing the line(s) Front-loading can't guarantee a soft landing Flagging growth won't derail central bank rate hikes Shrinking runway for a soft landing Will tough-talking central banks follow through? End of an era Central banks playing catch-up Conflict in Europe brings more uncertainty, more inflation Moving on from pandemic stimulus Omicron won’t deter hawkish central banks
Central banks weigh inflation, new variant Central banks feeling the pressure Central banks shuffling toward the exit Economic recovery delayed but not derailed Navigating the Delta variant Central bank divergence re-emerging Economies and markets in wait-and-see mode Central banks on different wavelengths Vaccines, restrictions driving near-term divergence Inflation Prospects Prompt Bond Market Reset Economic Momentum 'Strained' in Early 2021 Rising COVID Cases Make for a Challenging Start to 2021
Vaccine Rollout Boosts 2021 Growth Prospects The Balancing Act: Containment vs. Recovery Second Wave Threatens Recovery Momentum Economic Check-up after a Very Long 6 Months Economic Recovery Underway, but Risks Abound Managing COVID Outbreaks Key for the Path to Economic Recovery After Unprecedented Declines, an Uneasy Recovery Begins After the Fall Record-breaking Declines Ahead March 6, 2020 February 7, 2020 January 10, 2020