Financial Markets Monthly - RBC Thought Leadership

Take it easy, higher Fed terminal and weaker loonie shouldn’t make the BoC queasy

January 10, 2025

With the exceptional run of U.S. data continuing, we no longer expect any further rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.

Tangled up in trade: The steep cost of closing doors

December 11, 2024

International trade risks are back in focus as the incoming Trump administration prepares to take office—but for now, economic data is tracking broadly in line with prior expectations.

Running up that bill — U.S. growth gains, debt pains

November 13, 2024

U.S. government spending will continue to add to growth, but it may come at the cost of higher inflation, interest rates, and less savings for the future.

Don’t stop me now – rate cuts to multiply from the BoC, ECB and the BoE

October 10, 2024

The stronger-than-expected September U.S. payroll report left the economy on track for the historically elusive ‘soft landing’ and reduced urgency for the Fed to repeat a 50-basis point rate cut.

Ease on down the road – Fed shifting gears as inflation slows

September 11, 2024

Softening U.S. labour markets and lower inflation leave the Fed on track to kick of an easing cycle starting in September, one of the last major central banks to do so.

Stayin’ Alive: The U.S. labour market is weakening, not faltering

August 14, 2024

More central banks are committing to cutting interest rates from elevated levels.

At Last: U.S. economy is showing signs of softening

July 11, 2024

We now expect the Fed to cut rates in September—earlier than our prior December assumption—with a gradual easing cycle to follow.

Let me see you get low: central banks kick off rate cutting cycle

June 13, 2024

Bank of Canada and ECB both kickstarted the easing cycles in June but neither is expected to race rates to the bottom.

It's hard to leave (higher rates) when you can't find the door (to lower inflation)

May 9, 2024

Upside inflation surprises year-to-date in the U.S. will keep the Fed on the sidelines for now – we continue to expect the first cut to the fed funds target in December, contingent on both growth and inflation gradually and persistently slowing.

BoC and the Fed, you gotta keep ‘em separated

April 10, 2024

A resilient U.S. economy and signs of reacceleration in inflation look likely to derail Fed plans to cut interest rates by 75 basis points this year – we now look for just one 25 basis point cut in December.

U.S. outperformance continues but no sunshine yet for the Canadian economy

March 12, 2024

Resilience in the U.S. continues to buoy investors’ spirits. Conditions also look to have already bottomed out in the euro area and U.K. In Canada, things are much less upbeat.

New rules

February 7, 2024

How will the rest of this current rate cycle from the BoC compare with previous ones? In short, we expect more things to differ than to stay the same.