Key Findings:

  • Canada’s industrial sector is recovering relatively quickly following an unprecedented drop in 2020.
  • Resilient demand for goods globally has supported production chains, including in Canada.
  • Business investment bouncing back despite weakness in oil and gas and brick and mortar retail space.
  • Production capacity, not demand, the most pressing near-term concern.
  • And labour shortages that predate the pandemic continue to bedevil the sector.

Canada’s industrial sector is bouncing back faster than after previous downturns, despite enduring a record drop in 2020 and ongoing challenges in global supply chains. Amid resilient global demand for goods, production capacity is (once again) a pressing concern. The sector continues to be challenged by supply chain issues and labour shortages that predate the pandemic.

Manufacturing recovery pushing through the pandemic’s second wave, aided by government support

The manufacturing sector has been a relative bright spot in the global crisis, bouncing back rapidly after the unprecedented decline last spring. In Canada, total hours worked in the sector were back above year-ago levels by November. And although output was still running below pre-pandemic levels late in the year, it’s recovering much more quickly than after the 2008/09 global financial crisis.

Encouraging early indicators have emerged from a winter marked by a second wave of infections and containment measures. In January, manufacturing hours worked jumped 1.3% higher in Canada. Business surveys showed increasing optimism about the durability of the recovery. And U.S. industrial production continued to ramp up. That’s positive news for Canadian manufacturers, who are tied to tightly integrated cross-border production chains.

Tight production capacity a more significant near-term constraint

The sharp increase in global demand for goods has put pressure on producers still struggling to return to full capacity amid supply chain interruptions. Limited supply has fueled a notable increase in commodity prices, and driven transportation and other input costs sharply higher. Indeed, early manufacturing PMI reports pointed to solid growth momentum in February but also sounded an alarm on businesses bumping up against production capacity. Some of these challenges are related to Covid (eg. disruptions to production at plants due to virus spread)—but businesses are also running up against a problem that predates the pandemic: labour shortages.

The current labour squeeze reflects large current skills mismatch in the Canadian economy. The unemployment rate was north of 9% in January, with the bulk of those off work coming from accommodation and food services. Yet in the industrial sector, the supply of workers is once again emerging as a significant headwind to growth. A third of businesses reported labour shortages in the Bank of Canada’s Q4 Business Outlook Survey – slightly above pre-shock 2019/Q4 levels. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business also quoted a shortage of skilled labour as the most prominent factors limiting the ability to increase sales or production. Re-skilling workers will be key to addressing the longer-run impact of this challenge to output, employment and prices.

Demand for goods expected to strengthen further through 2021

Government support programs that have propped up demand for goods globally won’t last forever – but they won’t need to. As more vaccines are administered, containment measures can be further relaxed, enabling labour markets to recover more fully later this year. We expect GDP growth to accelerate significantly in 2021 as the hospitality sector returns, while momentum within the industrial sector remains solid.

Investment intentions shaping up; oil and gas, hospitality and retail remain the weak spots

With more businesses bumping up against capacity limits, and the path out of the pandemic brightened by vaccine developments, it’s no surprise that investment intentions are also recovering. Total planned capital expenditures were up 7% for 2021, according Statistics Canada’s closely-watched annual capital expenditures survey. The BoC’s Q4 Business Outlook Survey also flagged improved business confidence and investment plans. So far, imports of machinery and equipment (a key indicator of business equipment investment spending) has posted an impressive rebound – accelerating at a faster pace than in the wake of previous recessions.

Of course, not all industries are showing the same level of improvement. Investment plans in the oil & gas sector remain very soft for 2021 – although that was before the run-up in oil prices to over $60/bbl in February. Oil & gas drilling activity has partially bounced back, but has still been running about 30% below year-ago levels.

Not surprisingly, investment plans in accommodation and food services are still weak, with these sectors likely to be the last to see containment measures eased. Similarly, investment in brick and mortar retail space is expected to remain very sluggish. An acceleration in e-commerce retail sales in the recession is likely to be one of the permanent shifts coming from the pandemic. On the other hand, investment in transportation and warehousing will likely continue to grow with more consumer purchases being delivered from warehouses direct to homes.

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This report was authored by Senior Economist, Nathan Janzen, and Economist, Claire Fan.

 

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