In-depth reports on key current economic issues and events of importance for Canada, the United States and some international economies.
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Sign Up to get email updatesCanadian economy softened ahead of tariffs
April 30, 2025
Looking forward, we expect direct tariff impact will be relatively contained but a weaker US economy will continue to spill over and negatively impact Canada.
Q1 U.S. GDP signals a weak starting point
April 30, 2025
The print has some large pre-tariff distortions: a surge in imports drove the trade gap wider and this was only partially offset by a ramp up in inventories.
Canada’s path ahead: Six economic challenges facing the new federal government
April 29, 2025
Canada is not the only country facing shifting trade winds, and with pervasive uncertainty weighing on businesses, the public sector will need to play a role in making the economy more resilient.
CUSMA compliance rush: Will it shield Canada from U.S. tariffs?
April 25, 2025
A close look at the latest U.S. trade measures, how they interact with CUSMA, and what they mean for Canadian businesses navigating a more unpredictable trade environment.
Podcast: The 10-Minute Take
April 24, 2025
Are tariffs a game changer for growth and inflation? Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into how tariffs will tariffs influence inflation and GDP growth in the U.S. and Canada
RBC Consumer Spending Tracker
April 17, 2025
Canadians are pulling back on purchasing discretionary goods, although broader spending trends remained resilient in March compared to the dramatic pullback in consumer confidence measures.
Older Reports
Preparing for the downside: Could Canadian federal finances withstand a trade war? Bank of Canada policy update Slowing growth, higher prices: A deeper dive into our U.S. forecasts RBC Canadian Inflation Watch RBC U.S. Inflation Watch Trade war halts Canadian business optimism in Q1 Canada Labour Market U.S. Labour Market A thorn in the Fed’s side: What could tariffs mean for U.S. inflation and growth? U.S. reciprocal tariffs spare Canada/Mexico for now but trade risks remain Trade Hub: Insights on how Canada can build a resilient economy and fortify North America Five ramifications of the auto tariffs for the U.S. economy Canadian GDP Update Food Fight: China’s tariffs adds to exporters’ woes Uncertainty weighs on the Fed as they remain on pause ‘Yellow flags’: The cracks forming in the U.S. economy that we’re watching DOGE cuts could push up the U.S. unemployment rate What is the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy? U.S. tariffs on Canada take effect: What is the state of play? Trade uncertainty risks extending decades of under-investment in Canada Provincial budget preview: Preparing for uncertainty Six questions about the significance of interprovincial trade barriers in Canada How U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs would impact Canada’s economy Five things we learned this week about U.S.-Canada trade What tariffs could mean for the U.S. economy A U.S.-Canada trade shock now in play: first economic takeaways The Federal Reserve Buys Time: Rates on hold and lips sealed A playbook for how to measure a tariff shock in Canada Navigating 2025: Looking better and unsettling all at once
Proof Point: Canadian industries and provinces most exposed to U.S. tariff threat Proof Point: Are falling rents in Canada temporary relief or a new trend Quebec maintains large deficit, uses half its contingency reserve for spending Proof point: Canada’s job market slump—low-wage industries with young workers take the biggest hit Immigration cuts will help narrow Canada’s housing gap but won’t solve crisis Proof point: Why Canada is seeing an uneven recovery among households U.S. GDP Update How Canada’s new immigration targets will impact the economy Proof point: Job market is bigger risk to Canada’s economy than mortgage renewals Three reasons why 2024’s 2% inflation isn’t 2019’s 2% Falling inflation, rising jobless rate usher in easing cycles in Canada and abroad Proof point: Financial returns after a post-secondary education have diminished Weighing the impact of Canadian tariffs on Chinese EVs and metals Proof point: U.S. import tariffs haven’t reduced reliance on foreign goods Proven points: Rents, wages, inflation and other top reads from Proof Point Proof Point: Canada’s economy might not be in recession but it feels like one Proof point: Rental housing construction picks up in Canada but will it be enough? Proof Point: The Canadian tourism sector is struggling to stage a rebound Proof Point: Canadian inflation is unlikely to pick up again like in the U.S. Proof Point: Not addressing population aging can be very costly Proof Point: A weaker Canadian dollar won’t necessarily derail BoC interest rate cuts Federal Budget 2024: Lack of spending restraint offset by revenue surprise and tax hikes Proof Point: Governments face higher interest costs when straying from fiscal anchors How lowering the number of non-permanent residents will impact Canada’s economy Proof Point: Immigrants participation in the labour force surpasses those born in Canada Proof Point: Canadian renters face higher hurdles to accumulating wealth than homeowners Proof Point: Weak productivity is threatening Canada’s post-pandemic wage growth Proof Point: International student cap won’t immediately cut rental demand in Canada Proof Point: Consumer spending headwinds should ease in second half of 2024 Proof Point: Students and new graduates are bearing the brunt of the labour market downturn
Navigating 2024: Reset and Revival In A Reshaping World Proof Point: Why has U.S. consumer spending been so much more resilient than Canada's? Proof Point: Closing Canada’s infrastructure gap could boost Indigenous output by up to 17% Proof Point: Fiscal tailwinds coming to an end for Canada’s provinces Proof Point: For Canada, slower growth in China is a manageable risk Proof Point: The ranks of Canadian entrepreneurs are shrinking Proof Point: Is more turbulence on the way for Canadian labour relations? Proof Point: International students have a fast track to Canadian employment Proof Point: Canadian millennials have the smallest cushion against job losses Canadians on the move: will a pandemic shakeup in migration trends hold? Proof Point: Non-permanent residents can fill labour gaps in “greying” Canadian industries Proof Point: Soaring construction costs will hamper Canada’s homebuilding ambitions How Indigenous Business Can Accelerate Canada’s Net Zero Transition Proof Point: Food inflation will slow, but don’t expect prices to drop Proof Point: Canadians’ post-pandemic travel fever holds steady Five signs North America’s labour markets are starting to crack Proof Point: Banking turmoil is tightening already strained U.S. lending conditions Proof Point: More Canadians to fall behind on debt payments—but most will manage Proof Point: Will a weak Canadian dollar fire up inflation? Proof Point: Canada’s economy can’t afford a slump in business investment Proof Point: Canada’s shortage of rental housing could quadruple by 2026 Policy Insight: How Canada can win in the post-IRA economy Proof Point: Canadian women drove a pandemic shift into higher-paying jobs Proof Point: Canada is failing to put immigrant skills to work Proof Point: Without investment, Canadian wages could reignite inflation Proof Point: Canadians are still clinging to pandemic savings Proof Point: Canada needs green subsidies more than ever
Navigating 2023: Canada in the cross currents Proof Point: Is Canada becoming a nation of renters? The Transformative Seven: Technologies that can drive Canada's next green revolution Proof Point: Canada needs more doctors—and fast Proof Point: Canada’s provinces are basking in revenue, but how long will it last? The Next Green Revolution: How Canada can produce more food and fewer emissions Financing Greener Growth: The fall economic statement needs to accelerate green investment Proof Point: The housing-charged boom in Canadian net wealth is over Proof Point: Canada’s recession to arrive earlier than expected Proof Point: Canada still isn't spending enough on the green economy The Price of Power: How to cut Canada's Net Zero electricity bill Proof Point: The rise of services in Canadian goods trade Course Correction: How international students can help solve Canada's labour crisis Proof Point: Fewer supply chain snarls won't be enough to lower inflation to 2% Proof Point: Demographics a powerful counterforce in Canada’s housing market correction Proof Point: Reshoring hasn't spurred a Canadian manufacturing renaissance Canadian Housing: A Market In Retreat Proof Point: Canada's labour shortages will outlive a recession Proof Point: Canada's economy is headed for a recession Immigration Nation: New Canadians are vital to an aging society Proof Point: Can Canada feed the world? Proof Point: Canadians are scratching the travel itch again, but can the industry keep up? Proof Point: Immigration will fuel Atlantic Canada's population upswing Proof Point: Canadians can't kick cash Proof Point: Low income Canadians to feel sharpest sting from inflation, rate hikes The New Climate Bargain: How Canada Can Manage Energy & Environmental Security Proof Point: Canada's post-pandemic labour market shakeup Laying the Foundation: Canada's 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan Pandemic leaves Canadians richer—but saddled with more debt Equal measures: Advancing Canada's working women in a post-pandemic economy Green Collar Jobs: The skills revolution Canada needs to reach Net Zero Unleashing Opportunity: The economic gains in narrowing Canada’s racial wealth gap COVID Consumer Spending Tracker
The Great Canadian Restart: How 2022 can spark an era of greener, more robust growth What's up with inflation? Net Zero: A long way from Glasgow Squeeze Play: Higher wages alone won’t solve Canada’s labour shortage problem Closing the global sustainable finance gap The Canadian housing market outlook Brighter Days Ahead: Fiscal picture improves from coast to coast The Great Canadian Savings Puzzle The $2 Trillion Transition: Canada’s Road to Net Zero The new challenges facing Canada's small businesses A Regional Renaissance: More Canadians drawn to live on the Atlantic Coast during pandemic Home builders are tackling Canada's housing supply shortage Powering Up: Preparing Canada's skilled trades for a post-pandemic economy The Economic Pulse – September 2021 Edition Are sky-high job vacancies in Canada around for a while? Why isn't Canada investing enough in green projects, despite ambitious climate targets? Border carbon taxes are moving from idea to reality. How exposed is Canada? Building Bandwidth: The Conversation Continues Will supply-chain disruptions remain an obstacle to growth? The Coming Creativity Boom: How human ingenuity will power the 2020s Has the Canadian dollar already reached its peak for the year? Building Bandwidth: Preparing Indigenous youth for a digital future Will a return to pre-pandemic retirement and job quitting levels worsen emerging labour shortages in Canada? Canadian tourism sector primed for early recovery after bleak year The immigration balancing act The Economic Pulse – June 2021 Edition Rebuilding Canada's labour market: The inclusive recovery imperative Canadian retailers better placed to weather COVID third wave
COVID Response Has Kept Many Indebted Canadians from Reaching Debt Cliff BoC Outlines Financial Impacts of Covid-19 Bank of Canada Expanding Asset Purchases Canadian Dollar Weakened but Not Headed for Historical Lows COVID-19's Threat to Canada's Vulnerable Workers The Fruits of Her Labour Gauging Canadian Coronavirus Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Commodity Price Monitor (March 31, 2020) Ottawa announces more support for businesses (March 27, 2020) Federal stimulus grows to $52 billion (March 25, 2020) Federal fiscal support: phase one done but a long way to go (March 23, 2020) Federal government releases plan to soften Coronavirus blow (March 11, 2020) Rail blockades add to “transitory” disruptions (February 21, 2020) More Canadians struggled with debt in 2019 (February 12, 2020) Coronavirus: gauging the economic impact (January 31, 2020) Davos 2020: The race for global scale (January 27, 2020) Canadian trade worries easing, but domestic headwinds remain (January 17, 2020) Navigating the 2020s: How Canada can thrive in a decade of change (January 6, 2020)
Seeing Green in the Oil Patch Canada’s Manufacturing, Wholesale and Transportation Sector (December 11, 2019) The recession roadblock: Graduating into a downturn can have long-term career consequences (November 21, 2019) Paging Dr. Data - How the coming skills revolution can transform healthcare (November 14, 2019) 2018 Provincial Economic Accounts (November 7, 2019) Energy (Still) Matters (October 28, 2019) Keeping Canada Younger: Immigration helps to hold back the demographic time bomb (September 18, 2019) Untapped Potential: Canada needs to close its immigrant wage gap (September 18, 2019) A snapshot of young entrepreneurship in Canada (September 3, 2019) Farmer 4.0 - How the coming skills revolution can transform agriculture (August 28, 2019) Trade Tensions Turning Up on US Factory Floor (June 24, 2019) Efforts to deleverage households are starting to pay off (June 17, 2019) Canada's MWT sector: Solid gains despite a rocky ride in 2018 (June 12, 2019) $600 billion in planned resource projects is riding on Canada’s project-review overhaul (June 5, 2019) Don’t expect a big jolt to growth if trade tensions ease (April 16, 2019) Family matters: the cost of having children on women's careers (March 21, 2019) Advantage women: how an automated future could play to women's strengths (March 5, 2019) The stage looks set for stronger Canadian wage growth in 2019 (January 30, 2019) Davos 2019: Globalization in a digital world (January 28, 2019) US government shutdown impact on Canada (January 24, 2019) Navigating 2019 - 9 big insights for the year ahead (January 3,( 2019)
Interest payments surged in Q3 as Canadian household's indebtedness looked heavier than previously reported (December 14, 2018) Alberta's oil cuts will reduce Canadian GDP modestly in 2019 (December 3, 2018) Canadian National GDP Accounts (November 30, 2018) 2017 Provincial economic accounts: Growth from coast to coast confirmed (November 8, 2018) Canada's MWT sector: Vibrant supply chains drive firm sectoral growth (November 7, 2018) Energy Matters - Canada's options for the 2020s (October 26, 2018) US National GDP Accounts (October 26, 2018) The USMCA: Manageable concessions, less uncertainty (October 1, 2018) Debt service took a bigger bite out of household income in the second quarter (September 14, 2018) Canada and Australia: The State of Bilateral Trade and Investment (July 10, 2018) What's the problem with Canada's youth labour market? (July 5, 2018) Potential U.S. auto import tariffs: the view from Canada (June 26, 2018) A winning combination for Canadian households’ indebtedness profile (June 21, 2018) The cost of credentials (June 18, 2018) Weighing the impact of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada (May 31, 2018) Lost in Transportation: Putting the discount on Canadian heavy oil in context (May 9, 2018) 2017 provincial growth surprises on the upside (May 4, 2018) Alberta households will feel the most pressure from interest rate hikes (April 3, 2018) International Women's Day and Canadian Women: Mind the Gap(s) (March 7, 2018) CPTPP: an antidote to NAFTA flux? (March 7, 2018) Trade Deals and Agriculture: Not a game-changer but positive (March 1, 2018) Trudeau's State Visit to India: Time to leverage those people-to-people connections (February 15, 2018) Yes, Canadian Labour Markets Are Tight (February 14, 2018) Breakpoint: What Canada needs to consider to save NAFTA (January 22, 2018)
Five ways that 2017 left its mark (December 18, 2017) Life after NAFTA? (November 10, 2017) Carbon levies poised to become big money for provinces (October 30, 2017) BREXIT: A new challenge to Canada's European trade ambitions (October 19, 2017) Household credit growth accelerated through the July hike (September 1, 2017) NAFTA Renewal or Rejection? (August 24, 2017) The case for higher interest rates in Canada (July 10, 2017) Bigger-than-expected budget surplus in Quebec in 2016-17 (June 23, 2017) Debt Dashboard: Digging beyond the household debt headlines (June 7, 2017) Attracting International Talent (May 30, 2017) Canada gets a tourism boost (May 18, 2017) Softwood lumber: A shot across the bow? (May 2, 2017) How vulnerable is Canada’s economy to a housing downturn? Not enough to shake the foundation (May 1, 2017) The Million-Dollar Question: Will Carbon Pricing Work? (April 4, 2017) Canada's economy is underperforming...and the emperor's new clothes are magnificent (March 27, 2017) The State of Women in Canada’s Economy: In Pictures (March 7, 2017) Keep calm and carry on? A brief snapshot of household debt in Canada (March 2, 2017) The Decline in Manufacturing’s Share of Total Canadian Output (February 24, 2017) Laying out the welcome mat is good for growth (February 9, 2017) US state trade (January 27, 2017)