Provincial Outlook and Fiscal Analysis

Manitoba Budget 2025: Path to balance narrows amid new spending plans

March 21, 2025

Government expects $794 million deficit in 2025-26 and maintains commitment to balance the budget by 2027-28.

Saskatchewan Budget 2025: Maintaining a surplus despite trade risk

March 20, 2025

Saskatchewan intends to maintain a small $12 million surplus in 2025-26 after a deeper than expected deficit of $660 million 2024-25.

New Brunswick Budget 2025: Shifting away from surplus

March 19, 2025

New Brunswick projects a $599 million deficit in 2025-26 following a $399 million shortfall in 2024-25, marking a shift from the recent streak of surpluses.

B.C. Budget 2025: Growing deficits, rising debt and looming U.S. tariffs

March 5, 2025

The B.C. government upped projected budget deficits throughout its three-year fiscal plan, including a record $10.9 billion shortfall in 2025-26.

Alberta Budget 2025: Deficits and contingency to buffer U.S. trade risks

February 28, 2025

The Alberta government expects a $5.2 billion deficit in fiscal 2025-26 after a surprise surplus in fiscal 2024-25.

Provincial budget preview: Preparing for uncertainty

February 25, 2025

Structural economic challenges will need to be addressed this budget season, including managing the fiscal fallout from lower immigration targets and tackling the ongoing affordability crisis.

Nova Scotia Budget 2025: Tax cuts, prudence measures deepen deficit

February 19, 2025

Nova Scotia expects to run a larger $898-million deficit in fiscal year 2025-26 after a surprise surplus of $82 million in fiscal 2024-25.

Fall Economic Statement 2024: Canada boosts investment appeal and the deficit deepens

December 16, 2024

Lower revenues and new spending measures have resulted in deeper deficits over the course of the fiscal plan—including a whopping $22 billion downward revision to the 2023-24 bottom line to $61.9 billion.

Canada’s growth prospects brighten in 2025 but not without challenges

December 12, 2024

Canada’s economic growth challenges are expected to ease as the Bank of Canada continues to lower interest rates—but not right away, and longer-run challenges remain.

Smart money: Focused fiscal policy needed more than ever

December 3, 2024

Much has changed since the spring of Budget 2024. The feds’ lower immigration targets will hamper the growth engine the Canadian economy.

Quebec maintains large deficit, uses half its contingency reserve for spending

November 22, 2024

Quebec’s 2024 economic update looks uneventful on the surface, but more is happening underneath with larger federal transfers and new spending.

Ontario’s economic outlook brightens but immigration targets increase risks

October 31, 2024

Recent changes to the federal immigration plan weren’t accounted for in the underlying economic assumptions, adding downside risk to the fiscal plan.